We are also worried our Western allies are getting tired of helping us.
April 28, 2023 10:59 AM Subscribe
I think we don't have a current thread for the Russia-Ukraine war, so this is it. Round-up of links inside. Today is day 429 of the invasion.
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy upbeat after talk with China’s Xi and Analysis: China’s Ukraine plan mixes peace, self-interest (AP): "Xi’s plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force. His announcement Wednesday in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prompted optimism Beijing might use its warm relations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to push for peace. That was followed by skeptical questions about whether Beijing is more focused on ending an invasion it refuses to criticize, or serving its own interests."
- NATO allies have delivered almost all combat vehicles promised to Ukraine (CNN)
- German minister: Ukrainian soldiers start training on Leopard 1 tanks (Kyiv Independent): "Over 100 Ukrainian service personnel have started training on Leopard 1 battle tanks this week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Spanish publication La Vanguardia. The delivery of 80 Leopard tanks of the older model will begin in the second half of 2023, the minister said in an interview published on April 28."
- Russian missile and drone attack in Ukraine kills 23 people (AP): "The missile attacks included the first one against Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, in nearly two months, although there were no reports of any targets hit. The city government said Ukraine’s air force intercepted 11 cruise missiles and two unmanned aerial vehicles over Kyiv."[This updated from 21 to 23 people just as I was writing this, so the number may be higher when you read it.]
- Ukraine war: Bakhmut defenders worry about losing support (BBC): "A year ago Volodymyr and his men were firing all 40 barrels of their BM-21 Grad rocket launcher in one go. Now they can only afford to fire a few at a time at Russian targets." (Post title is a quote from this article.)
- Biden sets new sanctions on Russian and Iranian groups over detention of Americans, urges their release (CNN): "President Joe Biden officially announced new sanctions against groups in Russia and Iran accused of taking Americans hostage, an effort to prevent future captures and urge the countries to release those currently in captivity." Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan are being held in Russia on charges of espionage.
- Unreleased Report Finds Faults in Amnesty International’s Criticism of Ukraine (NYT): "Amnesty International’s board has sat for months on a report critical of the group after it accused Ukrainian forces of illegally endangering civilians while fighting Russia, according to documents and a person familiar with the matter."
- Forced deportation of children from Ukraine by Moscow is genocide, Council of Europe says (Guardian): "In its resolution, the assembly called for 'immediate and urgent action to be taken to halt the practices of unlawful forcible transfer and deportation currently being carried out by the Russian Federation against the Ukrainian population, and especially its policy and practices relating to the removal of children from their families and homes and their subsequent absorption into Russian citizenship, identity and culture.'"
- Aid: Fidelity Charitable list of organizations; UNICEF; Support Sellers in Ukraine
Al Jazeera has regular (possibly still daily updates, even?) coverage that may be helpful in filling that gap.
posted by eviemath at 11:13 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 11:13 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Understanding War’s daily updates are informative.
I wonder if Trump’s GOP rivals will play the “tool of Putin” card, or if that’s taboo since they enabled him for so long. I fear for Ukraine’s western support if those folks take power back.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:17 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
I wonder if Trump’s GOP rivals will play the “tool of Putin” card, or if that’s taboo since they enabled him for so long. I fear for Ukraine’s western support if those folks take power back.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:17 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
The other big story had been the so called Discord Leaks where an IT specialist with the Massachusetts Air National Guard used their admin credentials to steal a bunch of documents and share them on a discord server.
In terms of conductions on the ground there has been a slow and gradual “retrograde operation” (aka retreat) by Ukraine as Russia slowly advances at very high cost in life’s and material to capture Bahkmut. Ukraine has managed to secure a bridgehead over the Dinepro in Kherson in the last week or so. Everyone expects a major Ukrainians combined arms offensive as soon as the ground dries out, probably mid-May at this point.
Ukraine is still waiting to be given modern western attack aircraft such as the F-16. There has been a quiet move to recruit retired western pilots and maintenance techs/ ground crews in hopes of setting conditions for a rapid deployment of aircraft if they are authorized by the USA.
posted by interogative mood at 11:25 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
In terms of conductions on the ground there has been a slow and gradual “retrograde operation” (aka retreat) by Ukraine as Russia slowly advances at very high cost in life’s and material to capture Bahkmut. Ukraine has managed to secure a bridgehead over the Dinepro in Kherson in the last week or so. Everyone expects a major Ukrainians combined arms offensive as soon as the ground dries out, probably mid-May at this point.
Ukraine is still waiting to be given modern western attack aircraft such as the F-16. There has been a quiet move to recruit retired western pilots and maintenance techs/ ground crews in hopes of setting conditions for a rapid deployment of aircraft if they are authorized by the USA.
posted by interogative mood at 11:25 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Having quit Twitter, I really find that I'm out of touch with what's going on in Ukraine in the absence of a thread on MetaFilter, so thanks for doing this.
It's almost as if whoever owns Twitter is purposely destroying it. Cutting off information from Ukraine must just be unintended collateral damage.
posted by fimbulvetr at 11:25 AM on April 28, 2023 [9 favorites]
It's almost as if whoever owns Twitter is purposely destroying it. Cutting off information from Ukraine must just be unintended collateral damage.
posted by fimbulvetr at 11:25 AM on April 28, 2023 [9 favorites]
ISW is my go to summary of things. Their daily updates are pretty comprehensive.
The winter was warmer than expected, the West didn't get equipment to Ukraine in a speedy manner. Russia has put a lot of poorly trained bodies on the line. The Russians continue to make costly, wasteful and poorly planned attacks, though they really shouldn't.
Bakhmut has been the biggest focus of Russian attacks in the past several months. It's been a Russian political goal for almost a year now. And they are making slow grinding progress. The city might fall. But realistically, it's more of a propaganda victory than anything else. It's not going to break the Ukrainian lines and cause routs. It's not a big advantage for Russian forces. It's a way to fan the chattering class in Western media. Russia is using up what little forces capable of attacking well that they have left.
Ukraine is making seriously significant signs of a very immediate counterattack. Where? We don't know for sure, but it will probably be big and important, but not enough to end the war most likely. It will be interesting to see how much Russian canon fodder crumbles.
And.... It's an important inflection point. The war has gone on over a year. Ukraine has won most of the battles, but Russia still has a lot of territory occupied. If the West pressures Ukraine to make 'peace' with Russia still holding those lands, Russia is just going to rearm and be dicks again in the near future. Western arsenals can supply Ukraine for quite a while, as long as the political will holds. Left completely alone, it's an interesting question to see who runs out of the most vital supplies first.
Russia is sacrificing, wasting, a awful lot of lives. Pulling out is politically untenable for Putin. That's probably the biggest reason Russia is still in Ukraine. The longer they hold the illegally occupied territory, the harder it is to get them out.
And of course the Russian way of war crimes continues unabated, kidnapping Ukraine citizens and shipping them to Russia. Adults and especially children. And targeting civilians and using missiles as terrorism.
Slava Ukraine.
posted by Jacen at 11:26 AM on April 28, 2023 [32 favorites]
The winter was warmer than expected, the West didn't get equipment to Ukraine in a speedy manner. Russia has put a lot of poorly trained bodies on the line. The Russians continue to make costly, wasteful and poorly planned attacks, though they really shouldn't.
Bakhmut has been the biggest focus of Russian attacks in the past several months. It's been a Russian political goal for almost a year now. And they are making slow grinding progress. The city might fall. But realistically, it's more of a propaganda victory than anything else. It's not going to break the Ukrainian lines and cause routs. It's not a big advantage for Russian forces. It's a way to fan the chattering class in Western media. Russia is using up what little forces capable of attacking well that they have left.
Ukraine is making seriously significant signs of a very immediate counterattack. Where? We don't know for sure, but it will probably be big and important, but not enough to end the war most likely. It will be interesting to see how much Russian canon fodder crumbles.
And.... It's an important inflection point. The war has gone on over a year. Ukraine has won most of the battles, but Russia still has a lot of territory occupied. If the West pressures Ukraine to make 'peace' with Russia still holding those lands, Russia is just going to rearm and be dicks again in the near future. Western arsenals can supply Ukraine for quite a while, as long as the political will holds. Left completely alone, it's an interesting question to see who runs out of the most vital supplies first.
Russia is sacrificing, wasting, a awful lot of lives. Pulling out is politically untenable for Putin. That's probably the biggest reason Russia is still in Ukraine. The longer they hold the illegally occupied territory, the harder it is to get them out.
And of course the Russian way of war crimes continues unabated, kidnapping Ukraine citizens and shipping them to Russia. Adults and especially children. And targeting civilians and using missiles as terrorism.
Slava Ukraine.
posted by Jacen at 11:26 AM on April 28, 2023 [32 favorites]
The amount of blood being spent at Bakhmut is staggering - about as close to WWI levels as anyone's seen since that war.
Just looking at the maps - my fantasy would be a push through Kherson to cut off Crimea to put additional pressure on the Russians. After all so much of this war, beyond a puppet state, was to put a land bridge in place for Crimea and control that whole coast line.
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:57 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Just looking at the maps - my fantasy would be a push through Kherson to cut off Crimea to put additional pressure on the Russians. After all so much of this war, beyond a puppet state, was to put a land bridge in place for Crimea and control that whole coast line.
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:57 AM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Today is day 429 of the invasion.
Jesus. It's really been 429 days, hasn't it?
I just finished listening to Michael Kofman on the War on the Rocks podcast and the title was "Calm Before the Storm" We've all been hearing about this Spring offensive for a long time and we're getting close now. One of the biggest open questions about the offensive beyond what it will end up being and how successful or not it will be is: What will it actually change? Even if it is an overwhelming success, will Putin just continue to grind on for years and years?
posted by gwint at 12:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
Jesus. It's really been 429 days, hasn't it?
I just finished listening to Michael Kofman on the War on the Rocks podcast and the title was "Calm Before the Storm" We've all been hearing about this Spring offensive for a long time and we're getting close now. One of the biggest open questions about the offensive beyond what it will end up being and how successful or not it will be is: What will it actually change? Even if it is an overwhelming success, will Putin just continue to grind on for years and years?
posted by gwint at 12:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
How many more human bodies does Russia even have to throw at this?
posted by humbug at 12:01 PM on April 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by humbug at 12:01 PM on April 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don’t really care for Daily Kos in general, but the site’s Ukraine Updates are more substantial than most places I’ve seen.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:03 PM on April 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:03 PM on April 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
The previous thread for this closed, but in the past few days, the Danish navy reported that they have photos of a Russian ship fitted with submarines spotted near Nord Stream pipelines four days before explosion
posted by Comrade_robot at 12:06 PM on April 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Comrade_robot at 12:06 PM on April 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
How many more human bodies does Russia even have to throw at this?
More than the ukrainians, sadly.
By the way:
Putin Forces Russian Citizenship on Occupied Territories
This is the way you end up with something like Karelia or Kaliningrad: mass deportation of ukrainians and resettlement of russians. In this way, even if the occupied Oblasts are liberated, you find yourself with a sizeable minority of russians, and you must decide what to do with them.
This is also the case in the Baltic Republics, for instance.
Even worse: everyone that accepts a russian passport can then be drafted to fight for the Russian Army. And they don't even care for their own, russian-born soldiers...
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 12:16 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
More than the ukrainians, sadly.
By the way:
Putin Forces Russian Citizenship on Occupied Territories
This is the way you end up with something like Karelia or Kaliningrad: mass deportation of ukrainians and resettlement of russians. In this way, even if the occupied Oblasts are liberated, you find yourself with a sizeable minority of russians, and you must decide what to do with them.
This is also the case in the Baltic Republics, for instance.
Even worse: everyone that accepts a russian passport can then be drafted to fight for the Russian Army. And they don't even care for their own, russian-born soldiers...
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 12:16 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is why Russia spends so much effort crushing internal dissent and organizing propaganda. They expected to be in a war of attrition and feeding the meat-grinder is a vital part of that strategy.
(Also why I think western news sources regularly disbelieve that Russia can still fight - in their own countries, these horrific numbers would have resulted in both military and civilian leaders getting sacked)
posted by meowzilla at 12:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
(Also why I think western news sources regularly disbelieve that Russia can still fight - in their own countries, these horrific numbers would have resulted in both military and civilian leaders getting sacked)
posted by meowzilla at 12:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
People were saying the pipelines were a CIA job but it smelled more like a Russian hardliner tactic, as they know the embargoes will continue as long as Ukraine is occupied.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:15 PM on April 28, 2023
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:15 PM on April 28, 2023
How many more human bodies does Russia even have to throw at this?
CIA world factbook suggests a lot:
In comparison, Ukraine from ~1y ago:
So Ukraine, now, at what is presumably maximally mobilized, has less of a fighting force than Russia did before the war, and the ratio will only get worse as Russia mobilizes more and more. Of course, Russia also has a long border to defend with those people as well, and the occasional riot suppression.
Certain internet commentators have made hay over Russia's awkward population pyramid forecasting a demographic decline, suggesting a "now or ever" approach within the Kremlin.
posted by pwnguin at 1:35 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
CIA world factbook suggests a lot:
prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, approximately 850,000 active-duty troops (300,000 Ground Troops; 40,000 Airborne Troops; 150,000 Navy; 160,000 Aerospace Forces; 70,000 Strategic Rocket Forces; approximately 20,000 special operations forces; approximately 100,000 other uniformed personnel (command and control, cyber, support, logistics, security, etc.); estimated 300,000 Federal National Guard Troops (2023)
note 1: in December 2022, the Russian Government announced a target level of 1.15 million total troops and subsequently announced further plans to expand the size of the armed forces to 1.5 million, but did not provide a timeline
note 2: Russia was estimated to have as many as 50,000 private military contractors fighting in Ukraine as of early 2023
In comparison, Ukraine from ~1y ago:
up to 700,000 active-duty personnel, including the Armed Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, National Guard, and State Border Guard (July 2022)
So Ukraine, now, at what is presumably maximally mobilized, has less of a fighting force than Russia did before the war, and the ratio will only get worse as Russia mobilizes more and more. Of course, Russia also has a long border to defend with those people as well, and the occasional riot suppression.
Certain internet commentators have made hay over Russia's awkward population pyramid forecasting a demographic decline, suggesting a "now or ever" approach within the Kremlin.
_pyramid_(structure)_on_January,_1st,_2022.png){kind=link}
posted by pwnguin at 1:35 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
The moral to the physical as 3 is to 1
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:05 PM on April 28, 2023
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:05 PM on April 28, 2023
A few weeks back, I needed some old obsolete memory chips for a side project. I couldn't find any locally, so I jumped over to eBay and bought a tube of them without paying much attention to where they were coming from. A week or so later, I wondered what had ever happened to them so went online to track the shipment and wouldn't you know it they were shipping from Ukraine. The last update was that they were in the post office in Kiev awaiting export.
Well, I was pretty sure that they weren't going to arrive and figured I'd just wait a few weeks, then find a way to mark them as received and message the seller something like: "Sorry for the trouble. Keep the money and buy some drone parts. Slava Ukraine." but the next day they arrived in New York and then a couple of days later the mail carrier stuffed them through our mail slot.
I'm not sure what the takeaway from this whole thing is. I had made some incorrect assumptions about the civil infrastructure in and around Kiev. If I need more memory though, I know exactly where I'm going to buy it... and buy a few packs of his "russian warship Go F**k Yourself Ukraine 2022 Postcard" to go with them.
posted by flyingfox at 2:10 PM on April 28, 2023 [14 favorites]
Well, I was pretty sure that they weren't going to arrive and figured I'd just wait a few weeks, then find a way to mark them as received and message the seller something like: "Sorry for the trouble. Keep the money and buy some drone parts. Slava Ukraine." but the next day they arrived in New York and then a couple of days later the mail carrier stuffed them through our mail slot.
I'm not sure what the takeaway from this whole thing is. I had made some incorrect assumptions about the civil infrastructure in and around Kiev. If I need more memory though, I know exactly where I'm going to buy it... and buy a few packs of his "russian warship Go F**k Yourself Ukraine 2022 Postcard" to go with them.
posted by flyingfox at 2:10 PM on April 28, 2023 [14 favorites]
The previous thread for this closed, but in the past few days, the Danish navy reported that they have photos of a Russian ship fitted with submarines spotted near Nord Stream pipelines four days before explosion
It's not exactly proof that they did it (since really, wouldn't they be smart enough to launch their sub from further away?) but it sure is more likely than the wild, US-led multi-country conspiracy "theory."
I really never expected to see this kind of grinding, wasteful old-style war in Europe in my lifetime. Other kinds of fighting and violence, yes, but not this. It's horrible to watch, and that the UN structure is so toothless that the Russians are this month leading the security council is a sad joke.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:03 PM on April 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's not exactly proof that they did it (since really, wouldn't they be smart enough to launch their sub from further away?) but it sure is more likely than the wild, US-led multi-country conspiracy "theory."
I really never expected to see this kind of grinding, wasteful old-style war in Europe in my lifetime. Other kinds of fighting and violence, yes, but not this. It's horrible to watch, and that the UN structure is so toothless that the Russians are this month leading the security council is a sad joke.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:03 PM on April 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's not exactly proof that they did it (since really, wouldn't they be smart enough to launch their sub from further away?)
It's not an autonomous submarine. It's tethered to the ship.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's not an autonomous submarine. It's tethered to the ship.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
> How many more human bodies does Russia even have to throw at this?
800,000 Russian men turn 18 every year roughly.
About 200,000 Ukrainian men turn 18 every year roughly.
posted by NotAYakk at 4:24 PM on April 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
800,000 Russian men turn 18 every year roughly.
About 200,000 Ukrainian men turn 18 every year roughly.
posted by NotAYakk at 4:24 PM on April 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
Re:F16's for Ukraine.
I really wish people writing about this understood that there is 0 point in supplying F 16's anytime in the near future. They can and will be shot down before they can accomplish anything unless Ukraine has the capability to suppress/destroy enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD). In the meantime it is a waste of resources that could go to much more effective weapons.
posted by nestor_makhno at 4:45 PM on April 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
I really wish people writing about this understood that there is 0 point in supplying F 16's anytime in the near future. They can and will be shot down before they can accomplish anything unless Ukraine has the capability to suppress/destroy enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD). In the meantime it is a waste of resources that could go to much more effective weapons.
posted by nestor_makhno at 4:45 PM on April 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
Their air force has already been busy shooting down cruise missiles and drones, well out of range from any enemy anti-aircraft anything.
I mean, I know the F-16 is like the Ford Escort compared to an F-15's Mustang or an F-22's GT-40. But I think they'd work fine to shoot down cruise missiles.
And it's supposed to be easier to fly and maintain than fancier jets isn't it?
posted by VTX at 5:53 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
I mean, I know the F-16 is like the Ford Escort compared to an F-15's Mustang or an F-22's GT-40. But I think they'd work fine to shoot down cruise missiles.
And it's supposed to be easier to fly and maintain than fancier jets isn't it?
posted by VTX at 5:53 PM on April 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023
posted by clavdivs at 6:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 6:00 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
How Russia could spot Ukrainian F-16s before they even got off the ground, according to an air-warfare expert.
posted by clavdivs at 6:08 PM on April 28, 2023
posted by clavdivs at 6:08 PM on April 28, 2023
Ukraine is making seriously significant signs of a very immediate counterattack. Where? We don't know for sure, but it will probably be big and important, but not enough to end the war most likely.
I mean, I know in my gut that doing so would make Putin absolutely lose his mind with probable catastrophic ramifications, but I really would like to see Ukraine somehow find a way to go over the heads of entrenched Russian troops and strike vital targets inside Russia. Or, maybe hit munitions lines in Iran. I’m just so tired of Ukraine bearing the brunt of this shit on their own soil. The aggressors need to be hurt on their own soil for once.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
I mean, I know in my gut that doing so would make Putin absolutely lose his mind with probable catastrophic ramifications, but I really would like to see Ukraine somehow find a way to go over the heads of entrenched Russian troops and strike vital targets inside Russia. Or, maybe hit munitions lines in Iran. I’m just so tired of Ukraine bearing the brunt of this shit on their own soil. The aggressors need to be hurt on their own soil for once.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Ukraine has attacked targets within Russia and long-occupied Crimea a few times already during the war (possibly with drones, or sabotage), and there are anti-aircraft missiles deployed prominently in Moscow as well as defensive lines being erected on Russian soil. However, I think many of these fortifications are there mostly as propaganda to instill fear into the Russian populace that NATO and Ukraine are on the eve of invasion. I assume you're not referring to attacking civilians or civilian infrastructure, because that would have the opposite effect.
posted by meowzilla at 8:26 PM on April 28, 2023
posted by meowzilla at 8:26 PM on April 28, 2023
India, Russia agree to boost longstanding defence ties - "India, the world's largest arms importer, depends on Russia for nearly half its military supplies, and has bought fighter jets, tanks, nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier over the decades. But the war in Ukraine has held up supplies of Russian spares critical for India to maintain its tank and fighter jet fleets and delayed the delivery of Russian air defence systems. India has refused to publicly blame Russia for the war in Ukraine and has increased its trade with Moscow to a record high, driven largely by the import of Russian oil."* (India gorges on discounted Russian crude, enjoys fuel export bonus)
posted by kliuless at 10:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by kliuless at 10:26 PM on April 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've seen a claim that university students in Moscow are getting drafted, but haven't been able to confirm it. Anyone know whether it's true?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:22 AM on April 29, 2023
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:22 AM on April 29, 2023
I'm curious how the war is affecting the economic geography of Ukraine.
posted by rebent at 6:40 AM on April 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by rebent at 6:40 AM on April 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
If the West pressures Ukraine to make 'peace' with Russia still holding those lands, Russia is just going to rearm and be dicks again in the near future. Western arsenals can supply Ukraine for quite a while, as long as the political will holds.
The future of Ukraine should be left solely and entirely to the people of Ukraine and their elected leaders. They're fighting of a literal genocide (see the RIA Novosty statement of purpose early in the war, child kidnappings, and now deportations), and the collective West, while far more supportive than I would ever have expected had you asked me in January 2022, has still effectively made Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind its back.
Russia can bomb any square foot of Ukraine at will (provided of course they can hit it, which by their shotgun method of lobbing hundreds of missiles and STILL missing critical rail interchanges is at best intermittent), they can bomb hospitals in Kharkiv and a theater in Mariupol and playgrounds in Kyiv.
But Ukraine is still denied the ability to strike military targets deeper in Russia than HIMARS or Vilkha-M can reach -- and when they do, the west tut-tuts at Ukraine for what? For having the temerity to try to fight back in the manner they are being attacked?
Western support for Ukraine has been far more than the summary abandonment I expected, but only barely gets past being a farce.
I still believe Ukraine can win this war, decisively and resoundingly, but it takes months to give them a tank battalion. And they still don't have ATACMS.
I firmly believe that those who say arming Ukraine to fight at technological parity with Russia is escalation are utterly wrong both in moral and realpolitik terms. It's appeasement by a thousand small cuts, and it's shameful that it's still the effective doctrine of Western support.
posted by tclark at 9:00 AM on April 29, 2023 [13 favorites]
The future of Ukraine should be left solely and entirely to the people of Ukraine and their elected leaders. They're fighting of a literal genocide (see the RIA Novosty statement of purpose early in the war, child kidnappings, and now deportations), and the collective West, while far more supportive than I would ever have expected had you asked me in January 2022, has still effectively made Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind its back.
Russia can bomb any square foot of Ukraine at will (provided of course they can hit it, which by their shotgun method of lobbing hundreds of missiles and STILL missing critical rail interchanges is at best intermittent), they can bomb hospitals in Kharkiv and a theater in Mariupol and playgrounds in Kyiv.
But Ukraine is still denied the ability to strike military targets deeper in Russia than HIMARS or Vilkha-M can reach -- and when they do, the west tut-tuts at Ukraine for what? For having the temerity to try to fight back in the manner they are being attacked?
Western support for Ukraine has been far more than the summary abandonment I expected, but only barely gets past being a farce.
I still believe Ukraine can win this war, decisively and resoundingly, but it takes months to give them a tank battalion. And they still don't have ATACMS.
I firmly believe that those who say arming Ukraine to fight at technological parity with Russia is escalation are utterly wrong both in moral and realpolitik terms. It's appeasement by a thousand small cuts, and it's shameful that it's still the effective doctrine of Western support.
posted by tclark at 9:00 AM on April 29, 2023 [13 favorites]
I firmly believe that those who say arming Ukraine to fight at technological parity with Russia is escalation are utterly wrong both in moral and realpolitik terms.
The only people I know saying such things are Russians, their allies, and Republicans.
posted by Thorzdad at 11:35 AM on April 29, 2023 [9 favorites]
The only people I know saying such things are Russians, their allies, and Republicans.
posted by Thorzdad at 11:35 AM on April 29, 2023 [9 favorites]
>university students in Moscow are getting drafted
Probably at least some accuracy. The Russian organization that handles such things is, well, a cluster f***. I've seen lots of reports of at least improper notifications sent out to students and essential workers. I don't think they are actually conscripting many students, extra especially from Moscow. Putin is trying to keep the actual numbers of bodies sent to his war very secret.
It's always so very hard to tell what is actually going on with issues on Russian facilities. One, Russia has a habit of lying about the causes, and especially faking evidence. Two, maintenance and safety procedures are shoddy, often ignored, and inadequate. Russia shit goes boom on it's own sometimes. Third.... Ukrainian action, Russian dissidents or someone a little drunk smoking where they shouldn't?
Things like moltovs against recruitment buildings are one thing, but so much else I'd take with a grain of salt or three. Ukraine does have some good capabilities and highly trained special forces, but... Eh. I'm inclined to treat most inside Russia incidents as "Russia operates as normal, but the rest of the world pays attention due to the war" factor unless there's good independent evidence otherwise.
posted by Jacen at 11:58 AM on April 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
Probably at least some accuracy. The Russian organization that handles such things is, well, a cluster f***. I've seen lots of reports of at least improper notifications sent out to students and essential workers. I don't think they are actually conscripting many students, extra especially from Moscow. Putin is trying to keep the actual numbers of bodies sent to his war very secret.
It's always so very hard to tell what is actually going on with issues on Russian facilities. One, Russia has a habit of lying about the causes, and especially faking evidence. Two, maintenance and safety procedures are shoddy, often ignored, and inadequate. Russia shit goes boom on it's own sometimes. Third.... Ukrainian action, Russian dissidents or someone a little drunk smoking where they shouldn't?
Things like moltovs against recruitment buildings are one thing, but so much else I'd take with a grain of salt or three. Ukraine does have some good capabilities and highly trained special forces, but... Eh. I'm inclined to treat most inside Russia incidents as "Russia operates as normal, but the rest of the world pays attention due to the war" factor unless there's good independent evidence otherwise.
posted by Jacen at 11:58 AM on April 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
meowzilla: Ukraine has attacked targets within Russia and long-occupied Crimea a few times already during the war (possibly with drones, or sabotage),
Just this morning (4:30 local time) a big fire erupted at the Sevastopol naval base. That's after several attacks by surface drones over the past months, the most recent not a week ago. Which might be a signal that your drone detecting capabilities aren't quite up to snuff, and that you should do something about that. Did they? Apparently not.
There have also been long-distance attacks by drones or cruise missiles. One was on a refinery in Tuapse, a distance of 500km from where an Ukrainian missile could comfortably be launched (and 70km southeast of Putin's mansion near Sochi, so that's within reach as well), and others on targets close to Moscow. These were Ukrainian-developed craft, and no Western tut-tutting was heard about those. More or less only the Muskrat, who decided to block StarLink from being used on naval drones.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:00 PM on April 29, 2023
Just this morning (4:30 local time) a big fire erupted at the Sevastopol naval base. That's after several attacks by surface drones over the past months, the most recent not a week ago. Which might be a signal that your drone detecting capabilities aren't quite up to snuff, and that you should do something about that. Did they? Apparently not.
There have also been long-distance attacks by drones or cruise missiles. One was on a refinery in Tuapse, a distance of 500km from where an Ukrainian missile could comfortably be launched (and 70km southeast of Putin's mansion near Sochi, so that's within reach as well), and others on targets close to Moscow. These were Ukrainian-developed craft, and no Western tut-tutting was heard about those. More or less only the Muskrat, who decided to block StarLink from being used on naval drones.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:00 PM on April 29, 2023
Jacen: Things like moltovs against recruitment buildings are one thing, but so much else I'd take with a grain of salt or three.
A group of partizans under the name of Freedom Russia has been setting fire to railway signal boxes, posting video on Telegram channels. One might think that's small fry, but rail is a major component of Russian logistics and one signal box taken out can mean days of delay and re-routing of trains. Their most recent action was against a signal box near the south end of the Kerch Strait bridge.
Belarussian partizans have damaged the satcom antenna on a Beriev A-50 (essentially a Russian AWACS) stationed near Minsk and used to coordinate cruise missile attacks on Ukraine. No satcom? The plane is useless, and Russia only has six of them. "It's undergoing repairs" at the Beriev factory in Taganrog, and hasn't returned. Parts for that antenna? Custom-made, possibly from unobtainium nowadays.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 PM on April 29, 2023 [8 favorites]
A group of partizans under the name of Freedom Russia has been setting fire to railway signal boxes, posting video on Telegram channels. One might think that's small fry, but rail is a major component of Russian logistics and one signal box taken out can mean days of delay and re-routing of trains. Their most recent action was against a signal box near the south end of the Kerch Strait bridge.
Belarussian partizans have damaged the satcom antenna on a Beriev A-50 (essentially a Russian AWACS) stationed near Minsk and used to coordinate cruise missile attacks on Ukraine. No satcom? The plane is useless, and Russia only has six of them. "It's undergoing repairs" at the Beriev factory in Taganrog, and hasn't returned. Parts for that antenna? Custom-made, possibly from unobtainium nowadays.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 PM on April 29, 2023 [8 favorites]
I'm curious how the war is affecting the economic geography of Ukraine.
Part 6 of 'Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout' (Rand)
posted by clavdivs at 12:50 PM on April 29, 2023
Part 6 of 'Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout' (Rand)
posted by clavdivs at 12:50 PM on April 29, 2023
I firmly believe that those who say arming Ukraine to fight at technological parity with Russia is escalation are utterly wrong both in moral and realpolitik terms.
The only people I know saying such things are Russians, their allies, and Republicans.
And yet nobody has given Ukraine long range missiles capable of destroying Russian military infrastructure deep in the country.
Even if only the Russians, their allies and Republicans (and I'd like to add the likes of left wing folks in the vein of Chomsky and Lula) are saying it out loud, it remains that no country has given Ukraine ATACMS or equivalent -- implicitly, if not explicitly, in fear of it being "escalation."
posted by tclark at 1:53 PM on April 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
The only people I know saying such things are Russians, their allies, and Republicans.
And yet nobody has given Ukraine long range missiles capable of destroying Russian military infrastructure deep in the country.
Even if only the Russians, their allies and Republicans (and I'd like to add the likes of left wing folks in the vein of Chomsky and Lula) are saying it out loud, it remains that no country has given Ukraine ATACMS or equivalent -- implicitly, if not explicitly, in fear of it being "escalation."
posted by tclark at 1:53 PM on April 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
One factor to consider is that Russia has an insurmountable advantage in missile warfare, since if they get aggravated enough or damaged enough they can always choose to load a nuke onto the next cruise missile they launch at Ukraine. So it's not really an area of the conflict that the West wants to focus on or escalate. I can understand Ukrainians wanting to strike back at deep targets in Russia, but it does not seem likely to lead to any positive final outcome. If we want Ukraine to be able to "win" that missile battle and actually be at technological parity with Russia, we would need to give Ukraine a couple thousand nuclear warheads.
That's not to say we shouldn't give Ukraine more aid in other areas of the conflict, we definitely should. E.g. the US has ~5000 tanks that were specifically built to defend Europe from a Russia invasion, why not give Ukraine a few thousand to defend Europe from a Russian invasion? That sort of aid makes sense as it is in a domain of the conflict where Ukraine can potentially win. It is not like Russia has been holding back a fleet of tanks that are 1000x more powerful than the ones it has currently deployed. Ukraine can feasibly win a tank battle or artillery battle vs Russia, take back its land, and begin peace negotiations, while still keeping the war from escalating to nukes.
posted by Balna Watya at 2:55 PM on April 29, 2023 [7 favorites]
That's not to say we shouldn't give Ukraine more aid in other areas of the conflict, we definitely should. E.g. the US has ~5000 tanks that were specifically built to defend Europe from a Russia invasion, why not give Ukraine a few thousand to defend Europe from a Russian invasion? That sort of aid makes sense as it is in a domain of the conflict where Ukraine can potentially win. It is not like Russia has been holding back a fleet of tanks that are 1000x more powerful than the ones it has currently deployed. Ukraine can feasibly win a tank battle or artillery battle vs Russia, take back its land, and begin peace negotiations, while still keeping the war from escalating to nukes.
posted by Balna Watya at 2:55 PM on April 29, 2023 [7 favorites]
Although providing deadly aid is well accepted, providing essentially turnkey long range missiles pushes the boundary of “not a belligerent“. We have been walking closer and closer playing each other’s game of what are the interior moves and what are the red lines.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 3:15 PM on April 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 3:15 PM on April 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
since if they get aggravated enough or damaged enough they can always choose to load a nuke onto the next cruise missile they launch at Ukraine.
FYI, nuke talk is non grata in anything but explicitly marked threads.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:40 PM on April 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
FYI, nuke talk is non grata in anything but explicitly marked threads.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:40 PM on April 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russia’s advantage in terms of long range ballistic missiles has diminished significantly. They have used up most of their stocks and the interval between waves of attacks like we saw this last week has increased. Ukraine has gotten better at shooting them down, they just started deploying Patriot batteries. Russian missiles are also extremely inaccurate and have had low success at hitting strategic targets.
posted by interogative mood at 5:52 PM on April 29, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 5:52 PM on April 29, 2023
Reporting From Ukraine on YouTube posted 29 Apr: Ukrainians CRIPPLE RUSSIAN DEFENSE BEFORE THE GRAND OFFENSIVE | War in Ukraine Explained [4m32s] which sums up a lot of these most recent drone attacks.
posted by hippybear at 8:13 PM on April 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 8:13 PM on April 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
What we are seeing are called "shaping operations" in Western military lingo. It's sort of what you do to "set the stage" prior to the "proper" offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 2:31 AM on April 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:31 AM on April 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
The claim of ten drones attacking Sevastopol but only one penetrating the air defence umbrella is interesting. A really striking example of "you need to be lucky every time, I only need to get lucky once".
posted by Harald74 at 2:32 AM on April 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 2:32 AM on April 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
Those of you that have dropped of Twitter; several credible people and institutions have turned to make substacks (it's blog, IDK) or continued to update their plain old blogs. You could do a lot worse than following these examples:
- Retired Australian general Mick Ryan's Futura Doctrina
- Phllips's Newsletter,
by Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at St. Andrews, Scotland - War on the Rocks national security blog
- The Front section on War is Boring
Interview with Mykola Beleskow, Research Fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President/senior analyst at Come back alive, in Tagesschau (in German) about the coming spring offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 2:51 AM on April 30, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 2:51 AM on April 30, 2023
On a Discord forum started at the pandemic for my social circle, (USA, old nerds) we now have are first loss to this war: a relative who volunteered for the International Legion and was killed in combat.
posted by ocschwar at 7:13 AM on April 30, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:13 AM on April 30, 2023 [8 favorites]
Sorry for your loss, oschwar.
posted by Harald74 at 9:14 AM on April 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:14 AM on April 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
Tatarigami_UA (Ukrainian officer active on Twitter) has some thought on the current state of Wagner in Bakhmut.
posted by Harald74 at 12:41 AM on May 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:41 AM on May 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Looks like those pesky partizans are at it again.
Поезд сошёл с рельс в Брянской области. Предварительно, это произошло из-за подрыва железной дороги.
По данным «Базы», на перегоне Рассуха-Унеча железнодорожный состав с 60 вагонами, гружёный нефтепродуктами и пиломатериалами, сошёл с рельс из-за повреждения полотна. Предварительно, незадолго до схода поезда произошёл подрыв железной дороги.
По нашей информации, 7-8 вагонов в данный момент лежат на боку. Произошёл пожар. На месте находятся экстренные службы.
A train derailed in the Bryansk region. Preliminarily, it was caused by a railway explosion.
According to Baza, a train with 60 cars loaded with oil products and lumber derailed on the Rassukha-Unecha line due to a damaged track. Preliminarily, shortly before the train derailed, there was an explosion on the railway track.
According to our information, 7-8 cars are lying on the side at the moment. There has been a fire. Emergency services are on site.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:16 AM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Поезд сошёл с рельс в Брянской области. Предварительно, это произошло из-за подрыва железной дороги.
По данным «Базы», на перегоне Рассуха-Унеча железнодорожный состав с 60 вагонами, гружёный нефтепродуктами и пиломатериалами, сошёл с рельс из-за повреждения полотна. Предварительно, незадолго до схода поезда произошёл подрыв железной дороги.
По нашей информации, 7-8 вагонов в данный момент лежат на боку. Произошёл пожар. На месте находятся экстренные службы.
A train derailed in the Bryansk region. Preliminarily, it was caused by a railway explosion.
According to Baza, a train with 60 cars loaded with oil products and lumber derailed on the Rassukha-Unecha line due to a damaged track. Preliminarily, shortly before the train derailed, there was an explosion on the railway track.
According to our information, 7-8 cars are lying on the side at the moment. There has been a fire. Emergency services are on site.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:16 AM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Re:F16's for Ukraine.
I really wish people writing about this understood that there is 0 point in supplying F 16's anytime in the near future. They can and will be shot down before they can accomplish anything unless Ukraine has the capability to suppress/destroy enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD). In the meantime it is a waste of resources that could go to much more effective weapons.
You realize your argument is a tautology right? Ukraine needs the F16s to do SEAD/DEAD.
posted by srboisvert at 7:56 AM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
I really wish people writing about this understood that there is 0 point in supplying F 16's anytime in the near future. They can and will be shot down before they can accomplish anything unless Ukraine has the capability to suppress/destroy enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD). In the meantime it is a waste of resources that could go to much more effective weapons.
You realize your argument is a tautology right? Ukraine needs the F16s to do SEAD/DEAD.
posted by srboisvert at 7:56 AM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Actually, no. Ukraine is manufacturing rockets with exaggerated heat signatures in order to wear out Russia's air defense.
posted by ocschwar at 9:04 AM on May 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 9:04 AM on May 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I went to the Nashville Cherry Blossom Festival the other week and on a whim I bought some very pretty paper flowers. I wanted some little pots to put them in so I can have a little decorative area with the paper flowers, so I went on Etsy and searched on vases from shops in Ukraine. I got these and I am super excited to receive them.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:41 PM on May 1, 2023
posted by joannemerriam at 1:41 PM on May 1, 2023
Ukraine needs the F16s to do SEAD/DEAD.
Report to Congress on Transferring Fighter Aircraft to Ukraine
March 21, 2023
Salient points with-in.
posted by clavdivs at 2:13 PM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Report to Congress on Transferring Fighter Aircraft to Ukraine
March 21, 2023
Salient points with-in.
posted by clavdivs at 2:13 PM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Tatarigami_UA (Ukrainian officer active on Twitter) has some thought on the current state of Wagner in Bakhmut.
Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut, U.S. says (archive)
posted by gwint at 2:23 PM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut, U.S. says (archive)
posted by gwint at 2:23 PM on May 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
China, India and Brazil voted for a draft UN general assembly resolution that called Russia the aggressor in the conflict. This follows Chinese President Xi’s recent phone call with Ukraine’s president. Russian official media is unhappy about China’s decision.
posted by interogative mood at 2:32 PM on May 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:32 PM on May 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
To date, the best experts on this war have been Ukrainians, hands down, so when they ask for F-16, we (the collective West) should provide them if we can instead of debating the merits of doing so. But I'm not holding my breath.
posted by hat_eater at 7:19 PM on May 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hat_eater at 7:19 PM on May 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut, U.S. says (archive)
The US is usually quite conservative with these numbers, so when the White House says 100,000 casualties, that's very credible, and a staggering number. Of these 20,000 are killed, spokesman John Kirby said.
posted by Harald74 at 11:18 PM on May 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The US is usually quite conservative with these numbers, so when the White House says 100,000 casualties, that's very credible, and a staggering number. Of these 20,000 are killed, spokesman John Kirby said.
posted by Harald74 at 11:18 PM on May 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut, U.S. says (archive)
That headline (and a lot of the immediate reporting of what the spokesman was saying) didn't capture the statement accurately. The US is saying that there have been 100k casualties across the entire front since December, with the Wagner PMC casualties (half of the total) being concentrated in Bakhmut. It's not saying that there were that many casualties in Bakhmut alone.
Here is a tweet showing the actual text, and the White House later issued a correction/clarification as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:14 AM on May 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
That headline (and a lot of the immediate reporting of what the spokesman was saying) didn't capture the statement accurately. The US is saying that there have been 100k casualties across the entire front since December, with the Wagner PMC casualties (half of the total) being concentrated in Bakhmut. It's not saying that there were that many casualties in Bakhmut alone.
Here is a tweet showing the actual text, and the White House later issued a correction/clarification as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:14 AM on May 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Reporting From Ukraine in their most recent video [5m] says that Russians were digging defense trenches in a burial ground for infected cattle and a whole division got anthrax as a result.
posted by hippybear at 8:15 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 8:15 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
hippybear: and a whole division got anthrax as a result
There are also cases of radiation sickness among the troops that had been digging trenches in the Red Forest.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:51 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
There are also cases of radiation sickness among the troops that had been digging trenches in the Red Forest.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:51 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
There are also cases of radiation sickness among the troops that had been digging trenches in the Red Forest.
True, only this happened, like, just now, and has left a stretch of the front without a Russian unit.
I don't know much about this Reporting From Ukraine YT channel. It only just started appearing in my suggestions.
posted by hippybear at 9:53 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
True, only this happened, like, just now, and has left a stretch of the front without a Russian unit.
I don't know much about this Reporting From Ukraine YT channel. It only just started appearing in my suggestions.
posted by hippybear at 9:53 AM on May 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Stoneshop: A train derailed in the Bryansk region.
And another.
This was yesterday's, by the way.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:25 PM on May 2, 2023
And another.
This was yesterday's, by the way.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:25 PM on May 2, 2023
The US also estimated Russian casualties as 100K from the start of the invasion until November 2022: Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides. So people are dying even faster but by comparison to summer 2022, very little ground is changing hands.
posted by meowzilla at 8:36 PM on May 2, 2023
posted by meowzilla at 8:36 PM on May 2, 2023
Somewhat unexpectedly, Zelenskyy is in Helsinki right now to meet the Finnish president and the prime ministers of the other Nordic countries. I say “somewhat” because eyebrows were raised quizzically when the meeting was announced last week out of the blue.
YLE News will update its report about the visit throughout the day.
posted by Kattullus at 2:53 AM on May 3, 2023
YLE News will update its report about the visit throughout the day.
posted by Kattullus at 2:53 AM on May 3, 2023
Finnish Public Radio's investigation into the Nordstream blasts:
Russian ships visited the vicinity of the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosion site at least twice in June. The last visit to the area was just less than a week before the explosions in September 2022.
In one case, a Russian ship remained near the explosion site for almost a day.
Russian ships moved in the area with their AIS positioning devices turned off. However, four broadcasting companies, i.e. Denmark's DR, Norway's NRK, Sweden's SVT and Yle, were able to track the ships' movements using radio communication. Information was also verified by acquiring satellite images.
According to experts, the observations are a significant addition to understanding the events preceding the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
- This is interesting information that gives a convincing picture of Russia's secret activities near the gas pipelines in the period before the attacks, says HI Sutton . He is an independent naval analyst and expert on Russian underwater warfare.
posted by Comrade_robot at 7:04 AM on May 3, 2023 [6 favorites]
Russian ships visited the vicinity of the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosion site at least twice in June. The last visit to the area was just less than a week before the explosions in September 2022.
In one case, a Russian ship remained near the explosion site for almost a day.
Russian ships moved in the area with their AIS positioning devices turned off. However, four broadcasting companies, i.e. Denmark's DR, Norway's NRK, Sweden's SVT and Yle, were able to track the ships' movements using radio communication. Information was also verified by acquiring satellite images.
According to experts, the observations are a significant addition to understanding the events preceding the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
- This is interesting information that gives a convincing picture of Russia's secret activities near the gas pipelines in the period before the attacks, says HI Sutton . He is an independent naval analyst and expert on Russian underwater warfare.
posted by Comrade_robot at 7:04 AM on May 3, 2023 [6 favorites]
Two drones struck the Kremlin in the night. BBC has video, denials by Ukraine, claims by Russia this was an attempt to assassinate Putin. There appears to be a fire at the building.
posted by interogative mood at 11:38 AM on May 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 11:38 AM on May 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
As usual NonCredibleDefense has the most interesting information about the Kremlin strike.
posted by interogative mood at 11:42 AM on May 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:42 AM on May 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
I can't think of a more legitimate target than the Kremlin and/or Putin. Give Ukraine some Reaper drones armed with Hellfire missiles next time.
posted by mikelieman at 3:58 PM on May 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by mikelieman at 3:58 PM on May 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
In The Atlantic, Tom Nichols lays out the possibilities as he sees them: Four Possibilities for the Kremlin Attack: Moscow claims Ukraine struck the Kremlin. The truth is likely worse.
posted by Harald74 at 10:26 PM on May 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:26 PM on May 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Ukraine’s leader takes plea for justice to war crimes court:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took his campaign against Russia to the international war crimes court in the Netherlands on Thursday, saying he was certain Russian President Vladimir Putin would be convicted once his invasion of Ukraine is defeated.
posted by Pendragon at 8:24 AM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took his campaign against Russia to the international war crimes court in the Netherlands on Thursday, saying he was certain Russian President Vladimir Putin would be convicted once his invasion of Ukraine is defeated.
posted by Pendragon at 8:24 AM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
My current leading theory for the Kremlin attack is hardliners trying to push for total mobilization. Ukraine generally likes to do serious military damage when doing symbolism-laden attacks, like the Kerch bridge and the Moskva. Putin's false flags generally involve a lot of dead civilians, not a slightly embarrassing explosion right on top of the Kremlin. Dissident Russians or Moscow-resident Ukrainians? Maybe, but it's a pretty feeble attack for the risk you'd be running. Hardliners with GRU or FSB protection might think themselves safe, and embarrassing the Kremlin would be all the better for them.
posted by tavella at 9:01 AM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 9:01 AM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
My theory about the Kremlin attack is that it was their own test of defenses, for how quickly would a drone be shot down, and that they are also making an issue out of it in order to make loud angry noises about the sanctity of Mother Russia in hopes of making the Ukrainians a bit more timid about lobbing stuff at them.
If it wasn't Russian official authorities it might have been some of the Russian anti-war partisans who are blowing up rail lines. But a drone that size attacking a building that size is going to do nothing more than scorch the paintwork when it goes boom. It seems to me that the only people who would be willing to throw something that useless at the Kremlin are people who would be happy to see an increase in its anti-drone defenses.
posted by Jane the Brown at 1:36 PM on May 4, 2023
If it wasn't Russian official authorities it might have been some of the Russian anti-war partisans who are blowing up rail lines. But a drone that size attacking a building that size is going to do nothing more than scorch the paintwork when it goes boom. It seems to me that the only people who would be willing to throw something that useless at the Kremlin are people who would be happy to see an increase in its anti-drone defenses.
posted by Jane the Brown at 1:36 PM on May 4, 2023
One doesn't usually test air defence over a capital but this is Russia.
Putin's false flags generally involve a lot of dead civilians, not a slightly embarrassing explosion right on top of the Kremlin.
Pretty sure it was a false flag. Look at the timing. Putin in his dacha and Zelenskyy outside his country. The message is, look at our trick/Ukraine tried to kill me. It's like a fake causus belli to do what?
If anything, it disrupted security for Zelenskyy for a minute. I doubt it was partisans you don't shoot a drone at the Kremlin while your president is out of the country.
posted by clavdivs at 2:18 PM on May 4, 2023
Putin's false flags generally involve a lot of dead civilians, not a slightly embarrassing explosion right on top of the Kremlin.
Pretty sure it was a false flag. Look at the timing. Putin in his dacha and Zelenskyy outside his country. The message is, look at our trick/Ukraine tried to kill me. It's like a fake causus belli to do what?
If anything, it disrupted security for Zelenskyy for a minute. I doubt it was partisans you don't shoot a drone at the Kremlin while your president is out of the country.
posted by clavdivs at 2:18 PM on May 4, 2023
Oh, I think it was a false flag, I just think Russian hardliners with FSB/GRU connections is somewhat more likely than Putin's plan. Though the latter is obvious not impossible either.
posted by tavella at 2:28 PM on May 4, 2023
posted by tavella at 2:28 PM on May 4, 2023
Given the scale of damage we've seen from unknown factors within Russia (didn't entire factories burn down mysteriously?) I have a hard time thinking those same destructive forces would mount something this ineffective.
It's amazing to me that Putin keeps floating various balloons, like the dirty weapon rumors of months ago, or these weird little things like this fake drone attack... He's more canny than this. So what is really going on?
posted by hippybear at 2:43 PM on May 4, 2023
It's amazing to me that Putin keeps floating various balloons, like the dirty weapon rumors of months ago, or these weird little things like this fake drone attack... He's more canny than this. So what is really going on?
posted by hippybear at 2:43 PM on May 4, 2023
And it's just cute that Moscow is blaming the US for the drone attack. Because when the US launches an aerial attack on a target, it does just minimal damage and is easily ignored.
posted by hippybear at 3:48 PM on May 4, 2023
posted by hippybear at 3:48 PM on May 4, 2023
Yeah, I'd go with GRU for it's access to air defence grids. Lots of questions, the 2nd floppy drone looks like a controlled explosion and who are those dudes climbing the dome. And everyone knows Putin sleeps in a titatium casket 444 ft underground.
posted by clavdivs at 4:19 PM on May 4, 2023
posted by clavdivs at 4:19 PM on May 4, 2023
So what is really going on?
Internal politics most likely. It's probably to achieve some goal or another domestically and it's not really about what the rest of the world thinks about it.
posted by VTX at 5:44 PM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Internal politics most likely. It's probably to achieve some goal or another domestically and it's not really about what the rest of the world thinks about it.
posted by VTX at 5:44 PM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've been frustrated by my inability to find the source of the drone attack video. All I can find was that it was "circulating on social media." Was someone just standing around in the early morning hours recording the Kremlin? Who? Why?
posted by SPrintF at 6:44 PM on May 4, 2023
posted by SPrintF at 6:44 PM on May 4, 2023
This reminds (Twitter link) me of the Vincent in Pulp Fiction taking about some guy keying his car and how it would have been worth it if he could have been there to beat the guy up. A Russian diplomat decided to tear down the Ukrainian flag at a conference in Türkiye in plain view of a Ukranian diplomat. A quick beating ensured.
posted by interogative mood at 10:05 PM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:05 PM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
SPrintF: I've been frustrated by my inability to find the source of the drone attack video.
There are several. One is from a regular surveillance camera at the southwest corner of the Kremlin, another one filmed from an apartment window far away somewhere across the Moskva river showing a small fire on the dome of the Duma, and the one where you can see the two people climbing the dome just before the drone explodes (without hitting anything) is filmed from inside an office across Red Square. That's the one interogative mood links to above that someone on Reddit's NonCredibleDefence dissected. And I must say that it's indeed pretty noncredible that someone in an office there just happens to point his phone out the window at 1 a.m. and catches a drone 300m away seconds before it 'hits'. A SMALL drone, not an UAV that could have flown from way outside Moscow, or even Ukraine itself.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:36 AM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are several. One is from a regular surveillance camera at the southwest corner of the Kremlin, another one filmed from an apartment window far away somewhere across the Moskva river showing a small fire on the dome of the Duma, and the one where you can see the two people climbing the dome just before the drone explodes (without hitting anything) is filmed from inside an office across Red Square. That's the one interogative mood links to above that someone on Reddit's NonCredibleDefence dissected. And I must say that it's indeed pretty noncredible that someone in an office there just happens to point his phone out the window at 1 a.m. and catches a drone 300m away seconds before it 'hits'. A SMALL drone, not an UAV that could have flown from way outside Moscow, or even Ukraine itself.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:36 AM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
clavdivs: One doesn't usually test air defence over a capital but this is Russia.
Testing anti-drone measures in a dense urban environment does make some sense, but then loading your drone with live explosives or even just a small pyrotechnical device doesn't.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:15 AM on May 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Testing anti-drone measures in a dense urban environment does make some sense, but then loading your drone with live explosives or even just a small pyrotechnical device doesn't.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:15 AM on May 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh, I think it was a false flag, I just think Russian hardliners with FSB/GRU connections is somewhat more likely than Putin's plan. Though the latter is obvious not impossible either.
If you had told 14 year old me in 1989 that in 2023 I'd be studying military tactics and Kremlinology, I've have spent the entire interval to now in a deep, deep depression.
Kremlino delenda est.
We can't stick another generation with this task.
posted by ocschwar at 5:50 AM on May 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you had told 14 year old me in 1989 that in 2023 I'd be studying military tactics and Kremlinology, I've have spent the entire interval to now in a deep, deep depression.
Kremlino delenda est.
We can't stick another generation with this task.
posted by ocschwar at 5:50 AM on May 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think the Ukraine defense of Bakhmut is almost certainly justified. Russia is starting to run low on troops capable of attacking well (See things like futile attacks, notable losses of vehicles for no gains, and human wave attacks) and keeping them in Bakhmut serves several purposes. Don't interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake, after all.
One, Bakhmut is pretty much already destroyed, and heavily fortified. Why have Russia focus strong attacks somewhere else? Russia is losing more than Ukraine in the horrible maths of war here. Russia does not have unlimited tanks or artillery shells, and it's showing.
Two, it's a propaganda victory. The heroic defenses of things like Mariupol and Bakhmut reminds the world that Ukraine can and will fight, that the war isn't a pointless stalemate. Ukraine would be in a much tougher position without Western support, and Ukraine is really good at the media usage to get that. And Russia is shown as incompetent but dangerous over and over. Supporting Ukraine is constantly presented as the right thing. And, realistically, despite the odds there's a valid chance Ukraine will actually stop the Russian advance which is pretty amazing considering it means Russia is truly incapable of taking a small city. High tide of the Russian invasion in the second year of war.
Three, it probably doesn't significantly lower the counterattack potential. As far as I can tell, the upcoming offensive is largely made up of freshly trained troops. Bakhmut is a mostly defensive battle for Ukraine, and those troops are not going to be in good shape for a offensive battle. Putting enough supplies and people in Bakhmut to mostly hold the line and significantly drain Russia gives plenty of time and space to build the Ukraine attack brigades needed to change the equation for the war once more.
Russia can still technically win the war (Despite having basically no other victories after the initial invasion). If they hang on until the West gives up, basically, they are likely to hold on to whatever parts of Ukraine they occupy at the time. It will at best be a Pyrrhic as hell victory, but Putin doesn't care about human life. Attacking appeases the Putin ego, even if it is a terrible idea, a utter waste of what concrete power his army has, and stunningly unproductive. Taking Bakhmut doesn't really change the strategy of the war, it's just satisfying Putin's obsession with staying in power.
posted by Jacen at 7:15 AM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
One, Bakhmut is pretty much already destroyed, and heavily fortified. Why have Russia focus strong attacks somewhere else? Russia is losing more than Ukraine in the horrible maths of war here. Russia does not have unlimited tanks or artillery shells, and it's showing.
Two, it's a propaganda victory. The heroic defenses of things like Mariupol and Bakhmut reminds the world that Ukraine can and will fight, that the war isn't a pointless stalemate. Ukraine would be in a much tougher position without Western support, and Ukraine is really good at the media usage to get that. And Russia is shown as incompetent but dangerous over and over. Supporting Ukraine is constantly presented as the right thing. And, realistically, despite the odds there's a valid chance Ukraine will actually stop the Russian advance which is pretty amazing considering it means Russia is truly incapable of taking a small city. High tide of the Russian invasion in the second year of war.
Three, it probably doesn't significantly lower the counterattack potential. As far as I can tell, the upcoming offensive is largely made up of freshly trained troops. Bakhmut is a mostly defensive battle for Ukraine, and those troops are not going to be in good shape for a offensive battle. Putting enough supplies and people in Bakhmut to mostly hold the line and significantly drain Russia gives plenty of time and space to build the Ukraine attack brigades needed to change the equation for the war once more.
Russia can still technically win the war (Despite having basically no other victories after the initial invasion). If they hang on until the West gives up, basically, they are likely to hold on to whatever parts of Ukraine they occupy at the time. It will at best be a Pyrrhic as hell victory, but Putin doesn't care about human life. Attacking appeases the Putin ego, even if it is a terrible idea, a utter waste of what concrete power his army has, and stunningly unproductive. Taking Bakhmut doesn't really change the strategy of the war, it's just satisfying Putin's obsession with staying in power.
posted by Jacen at 7:15 AM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
More on the Wagner group:
Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull fighters out of Bakhmut (BBC)
Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull fighters out of Bakhmut (BBC)
Earlier this week, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby - citing newly declassified intelligence - said that more than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and another 80,000 wounded in fighting in Ukraine since December. Half of the dead were from the Wagner group.posted by joannemerriam at 7:45 AM on May 5, 2023
In his statement on Friday, Prigozhin, 61, pinned his decision to withdraw from Bakhmut squarely on the defence ministry, using expletives.
"Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have often been the focus for Prigozhin's anger, amid reports of fierce infighting among different power groups in Russian President Vladimir Putin's entourage.
In the statement, Prigozhin said his Wagner's casualties were "growing in geometrical progression every day" because of the lack of ammunition.
But he stressed that his fighters would stay on their positions until 9 May, when Russia marks Victory Day in World War Two, and would only withdraw from Bakhmut the following day.
Wait, isn't Wagner a mercenary group? Surely they're getting paid for their services, even if the individual soldiers are not. I wonder if this lack of ammunition is a budgeting problem, a supply chain problem, or is just a lie to throw everyone off. Wagner is known for boobytrapping places they're leaving.
posted by hippybear at 8:31 AM on May 5, 2023
posted by hippybear at 8:31 AM on May 5, 2023
Wagner soldiers are mercenaries, paid by Pigozhin from the spoils of the wars they're waging services they're rendering to various groups elsewhere, mainly in Africa and the Middle East.
I don't doubt that they've billed the Kremlin for their actions in Ukraine.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:57 AM on May 5, 2023
I don't doubt that they've billed the Kremlin for their actions in Ukraine.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:57 AM on May 5, 2023
The name of the relative-of-a-friend I mentioned above is public now. They died serving in the International Legion. I won't get any more specific because Russian intel agencies are trying to fuck with the social networks of soldiers in the home front and I don't want to be responsible for helping them.
I'll just say this: the war in Ukraine really is turning into a parallel of the Spanish Civil War. On one side is a bunch of authoritarian thugs covered with a religious veneer. On the other side, an underdog asking for international support and making the case for their cause with an ethnonationalist case (Catalonian self determination - Ukrainian self determination) and a civic nationalist cause (upholding a pluralist and humane social order in a particular region.)
I can sympathize with the ethnonationalist side of things to some degree. You're under assault and want the whole world to know that no, you are not in fact a mirror image of your assailant. But that is not what brought the Legionnaires in. It is not what they are fighting and dying for.
posted by ocschwar at 10:51 AM on May 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
I'll just say this: the war in Ukraine really is turning into a parallel of the Spanish Civil War. On one side is a bunch of authoritarian thugs covered with a religious veneer. On the other side, an underdog asking for international support and making the case for their cause with an ethnonationalist case (Catalonian self determination - Ukrainian self determination) and a civic nationalist cause (upholding a pluralist and humane social order in a particular region.)
I can sympathize with the ethnonationalist side of things to some degree. You're under assault and want the whole world to know that no, you are not in fact a mirror image of your assailant. But that is not what brought the Legionnaires in. It is not what they are fighting and dying for.
posted by ocschwar at 10:51 AM on May 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
Malcontent News has a reasonably good daily podcast with war updates and analysis.
They’ve been pointing out this week that Wagner activities have recently been dropped from Russian MOD updates. Wagner’s activities had been featured starting earlier this year when the bosses had a big meeting and claimed to have resolved their issues.
malcontent news also reported that the long term weather forecast suggests that the Ukrainians will be able to conduct operations starting after the 10th. So the timing is suspicious.
posted by interogative mood at 1:28 PM on May 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
They’ve been pointing out this week that Wagner activities have recently been dropped from Russian MOD updates. Wagner’s activities had been featured starting earlier this year when the bosses had a big meeting and claimed to have resolved their issues.
malcontent news also reported that the long term weather forecast suggests that the Ukrainians will be able to conduct operations starting after the 10th. So the timing is suspicious.
posted by interogative mood at 1:28 PM on May 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Is this how the tide turns against Russia? Wagner just decides they're done and leaves?
posted by hippybear at 1:33 PM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:33 PM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
In other good news Gonzalo Lira has been arrested in Ukraine. Even though he has been living in Ukraine since the before the start of the war and has been a vocal pro-Russian blogger and YouTuber, Ukraine didn't arrest him until this past week. Among his crimes may be that he has been sharing location data about pro-Ukrainian journalists (such as the hotels they are staying at) with the Russians along with other espionage activities.
posted by interogative mood at 1:52 PM on May 5, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 1:52 PM on May 5, 2023
For a bit more on Lira, here’s Lazerpig’s follow up video to his appearance on Lira’s round table podcasts. (Fair warning — Lazerpig’s style is… “colorful”)
To quote the Pig, that was a shitshow. Not going give Lira the clicks but the brief segment in the video gives you a pretty good idea of exactly the kind of “commentator” Lira is.
posted by nathan_teske at 9:42 PM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
To quote the Pig, that was a shitshow. Not going give Lira the clicks but the brief segment in the video gives you a pretty good idea of exactly the kind of “commentator” Lira is.
posted by nathan_teske at 9:42 PM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
@officejjsmart: "🥊 In Ankara 🇹🇷, during the events of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Community, the representative of Russia 🇷🇺 tore the flag of Ukraine 🇺🇦 from the hands of a 🇺🇦 Member of Parliament. The 🇺🇦 MP then punched the Russian in the face."
@ChrisO_wiki: "Sanctions on the Russian aviation industry are leading to an increasing number of malfunctions and emergency landings, due to a lack of maintenance and technical support, and an acute shortage of spare parts. Safety is said to be gradually deteriorating."
Russian railway is on the verge of collapse - "The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons..."
Ukrainian farmer comes up with novel way to demine his fields - "A Ukrainian farmer has come up with a novel way to remove mines left in his fields after Russia's invasion -- he's kitted out his tractor with protective panels stripped from Russian tanks and operates it by remote control." (yt)
posted by kliuless at 11:59 PM on May 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
@ChrisO_wiki: "Sanctions on the Russian aviation industry are leading to an increasing number of malfunctions and emergency landings, due to a lack of maintenance and technical support, and an acute shortage of spare parts. Safety is said to be gradually deteriorating."
Russian railway is on the verge of collapse - "The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons..."
Ukrainian farmer comes up with novel way to demine his fields - "A Ukrainian farmer has come up with a novel way to remove mines left in his fields after Russia's invasion -- he's kitted out his tractor with protective panels stripped from Russian tanks and operates it by remote control." (yt)
posted by kliuless at 11:59 PM on May 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
Content warning: Discussion of dead casualties and looting
I'm curious to know more about the supply issues. Prigozhin's complaint that his troops are getting 70% less ammunition than the regular Russian troops indicates that the mercenaries are not running their own supply lines. For some reason that surprises me although it has been evident for some time. What is Wagner supplying and how much control do they have over their men and materiel? How much input does Prigozhin have over their deployment? Did he just write a contract that the corporation will get a certain payment per month and send them out completely under the orders of the regular military, and have no supply chain to provide for them himself?
I had sort of assumed that Wagner would be supplying at least a proportion of their own equipment and materiel. They used to pay premium over regular Russian military wages but apparently the wages are now on par with the reg forces so it makes sense that they are not differentiated from the reg forces in other ways. And, I find after doing a little more reading, there is sufficient reason to question how independent they really were to begin with, as some analysts believe they have always pretty much just been another branch of the Russian military like the Navy Seals are a branch of the US military, claiming mercenary status merely so that Russia itself can claim not to be culpable for what they do. I've just gone down a rabbit hole where I am now curious if Prigozhin is more a figurehead than the owner of the Wagner Corporation.
Russia being Russia, his complaints about the supplies being issued may be a deflect. What if he is complaining they get 70% less than the reg forces do to convince the Russian public that the reg forces are getting that proportion more? In some ways it would be reassuring to the sister of a Russian conscript to hear that her brother's unit is getting >200% more ammunition than the elite force. Clearly things are nasty out there - but at least the worst of the situation is limited to the mercenaries!
I think wishful thinking has me looking for what I want to see. I know that Russia has always had serious problems with their logistics, and I know that Ukraine is doing their level best to screw up their supply lines. I assume that if the Russian military supply chain is breaking ordinary Russians are hearing enough about it to be wondering how much food and ammunition is getting to their own conscripts. We have heard some painful stories about units being deployed without any rations or without weapons or spare tires, which seemed to merely be some initial glitches as these shortages only got mentioned during initial deployments of large numbers of personnel. How bad are their front line supply chains now?
The thing that started me wondering was the boots. Behind Prigozhin there is a field of dead mercenaries and at least two of them are not wearing any boots. I do know that explosions can blow people's boots off. But when it does it tends to blow the other clothing to shreds. It therefore looks to me like somebody took the boots off the dead men. I don't think it was done as part of battlefield triage - there are no bandages or other signs that first aid was done. So that makes it look like someone scavenged their boots. Who is out there where those men died that is badly enough off that they are looting corpses of basic personal equipment? Just how badly supplied are they?
I remember reading the memoir of a girl who survived being in a concentration camp in Germany. It was a labour camp, and the job she was assigned was taking old uniforms apart at the seams so they could be reassembled again. Each garment was damaged because the man who had been wearing it had been killed. They played a matching game, combining parts of a uniform with blood and bullet holes in the chest with parts of a uniform that had the damage in the back or the sleeves to make a whole garment that could be worn again. The clothing came to them in appalling condition and she was traumatized because she recognized that every piece represented a man who had died. She was not in the concentration camp long enough to die of starvation. She survived to record her experience only because it all took place at the very end of that war when the German Army was already in full retreat.
How bad is the situation of a Russian soldier at the front lines now? At what point do stolen boots go from being nothing more than signs of a Russian Milo Minderbinder hustling to make a buck, to evidence that there are desperate Russian conscripts on the front lines facing a firefight in bare feet?
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:52 AM on May 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm curious to know more about the supply issues. Prigozhin's complaint that his troops are getting 70% less ammunition than the regular Russian troops indicates that the mercenaries are not running their own supply lines. For some reason that surprises me although it has been evident for some time. What is Wagner supplying and how much control do they have over their men and materiel? How much input does Prigozhin have over their deployment? Did he just write a contract that the corporation will get a certain payment per month and send them out completely under the orders of the regular military, and have no supply chain to provide for them himself?
I had sort of assumed that Wagner would be supplying at least a proportion of their own equipment and materiel. They used to pay premium over regular Russian military wages but apparently the wages are now on par with the reg forces so it makes sense that they are not differentiated from the reg forces in other ways. And, I find after doing a little more reading, there is sufficient reason to question how independent they really were to begin with, as some analysts believe they have always pretty much just been another branch of the Russian military like the Navy Seals are a branch of the US military, claiming mercenary status merely so that Russia itself can claim not to be culpable for what they do. I've just gone down a rabbit hole where I am now curious if Prigozhin is more a figurehead than the owner of the Wagner Corporation.
Russia being Russia, his complaints about the supplies being issued may be a deflect. What if he is complaining they get 70% less than the reg forces do to convince the Russian public that the reg forces are getting that proportion more? In some ways it would be reassuring to the sister of a Russian conscript to hear that her brother's unit is getting >200% more ammunition than the elite force. Clearly things are nasty out there - but at least the worst of the situation is limited to the mercenaries!
I think wishful thinking has me looking for what I want to see. I know that Russia has always had serious problems with their logistics, and I know that Ukraine is doing their level best to screw up their supply lines. I assume that if the Russian military supply chain is breaking ordinary Russians are hearing enough about it to be wondering how much food and ammunition is getting to their own conscripts. We have heard some painful stories about units being deployed without any rations or without weapons or spare tires, which seemed to merely be some initial glitches as these shortages only got mentioned during initial deployments of large numbers of personnel. How bad are their front line supply chains now?
The thing that started me wondering was the boots. Behind Prigozhin there is a field of dead mercenaries and at least two of them are not wearing any boots. I do know that explosions can blow people's boots off. But when it does it tends to blow the other clothing to shreds. It therefore looks to me like somebody took the boots off the dead men. I don't think it was done as part of battlefield triage - there are no bandages or other signs that first aid was done. So that makes it look like someone scavenged their boots. Who is out there where those men died that is badly enough off that they are looting corpses of basic personal equipment? Just how badly supplied are they?
I remember reading the memoir of a girl who survived being in a concentration camp in Germany. It was a labour camp, and the job she was assigned was taking old uniforms apart at the seams so they could be reassembled again. Each garment was damaged because the man who had been wearing it had been killed. They played a matching game, combining parts of a uniform with blood and bullet holes in the chest with parts of a uniform that had the damage in the back or the sleeves to make a whole garment that could be worn again. The clothing came to them in appalling condition and she was traumatized because she recognized that every piece represented a man who had died. She was not in the concentration camp long enough to die of starvation. She survived to record her experience only because it all took place at the very end of that war when the German Army was already in full retreat.
How bad is the situation of a Russian soldier at the front lines now? At what point do stolen boots go from being nothing more than signs of a Russian Milo Minderbinder hustling to make a buck, to evidence that there are desperate Russian conscripts on the front lines facing a firefight in bare feet?
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:52 AM on May 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
taking old uniforms apart at the seams so they could be reassembled again
The very excellent and entirely grim recent film All's Quiet On The Western Front begins with a montage like this, with the repaired uniforms being given to the idealistic fresh faced young men as they enter service. That was a prior war, however.
posted by hippybear at 8:46 AM on May 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
The very excellent and entirely grim recent film All's Quiet On The Western Front begins with a montage like this, with the repaired uniforms being given to the idealistic fresh faced young men as they enter service. That was a prior war, however.
posted by hippybear at 8:46 AM on May 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukraine claims first intercept with US provided Patriot system: a Russian hypersonic ballistic missile
I'm sure a bunch of US defense contractors are ecstatic.
posted by meowzilla at 8:52 AM on May 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
I'm sure a bunch of US defense contractors are ecstatic.
posted by meowzilla at 8:52 AM on May 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
Jane the Brown: How bad is the situation of a Russian soldier at the front lines now? At what point do stolen boots go from being nothing more than signs of a Russian Milo Minderbinder hustling to make a buck, to evidence that there are desperate Russian conscripts on the front lines facing a firefight in bare feet?
Videos showing Russian PoWs and KIAs show a bewildering variety in equipment and clothing. Occasionally decent, quite often lacking one or more fairly essential parts, down to plain overalls and rubber boots and even basically jogging outfits and trainers. The latter are likely prisoners, conscripted with Wagner.
So it is systemic.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:56 AM on May 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Videos showing Russian PoWs and KIAs show a bewildering variety in equipment and clothing. Occasionally decent, quite often lacking one or more fairly essential parts, down to plain overalls and rubber boots and even basically jogging outfits and trainers. The latter are likely prisoners, conscripted with Wagner.
So it is systemic.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:56 AM on May 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
And about corruption: apparently there's a black market for T-90 tank engines.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:57 AM on May 6, 2023
posted by Stoneshop at 11:57 AM on May 6, 2023
The US Patriot missile system shooting down Russia’s much hyped hypersonic missile is more proof of the total failure of Putinism. This was supposed to be their answer to our efforts in anti-ballistic systems. The longer this war goes on the more it appears that Russias only military “strength” is a willingness to waste the lives of 10,000 men to gain 10 meters.
posted by interogative mood at 3:35 PM on May 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:35 PM on May 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
A rare interview with Budanov, the chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 PM on May 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:05 PM on May 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Wagner is not pulling out of Bakhmut after all. What a shocker.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 11:37 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 11:37 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Wait, isn't Wagner a mercenary group? Surely they're getting paid for their services, even if the individual soldiers are not. I wonder if this lack of ammunition is a budgeting problem, a supply chain problem, or is just a lie to throw everyone off.
Do you think there are arms manufacturers in Russia that are not producing 100% for the Russian military right now? The state is likely also buying everything they possibly can in the international market as well. There is probably no avenue for Wagner to supply their own troops with new gear right now without going through the official Russian military channels (other than going through the blackmarket theft from the Russian military route).
posted by srboisvert at 3:10 AM on May 8, 2023
Do you think there are arms manufacturers in Russia that are not producing 100% for the Russian military right now? The state is likely also buying everything they possibly can in the international market as well. There is probably no avenue for Wagner to supply their own troops with new gear right now without going through the official Russian military channels (other than going through the blackmarket theft from the Russian military route).
posted by srboisvert at 3:10 AM on May 8, 2023
srboisvert: Do you think there are arms manufacturers in Russia that are not producing 100% for the Russian military right now?
Oh, definitely.
Wagner paying a worthwhile percentage more, manufacturers and/or shipping companies being indebted with Prigozhin, people at those factories and shipping co's with relatives and friends fighting in Bakhmut just sticking a different destination label on boxes.
As usual, on paper production will be going to RuAF in its full 200%. Reality will differ.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:56 AM on May 8, 2023
Oh, definitely.
Wagner paying a worthwhile percentage more, manufacturers and/or shipping companies being indebted with Prigozhin, people at those factories and shipping co's with relatives and friends fighting in Bakhmut just sticking a different destination label on boxes.
As usual, on paper production will be going to RuAF in its full 200%. Reality will differ.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:56 AM on May 8, 2023
And about corruption: apparently there's a black market for T-90 tank engines.
I was really curious about this market but the article has zero info on who is buying the tank engines. Also no info on how they were stolen and shipped.
posted by srboisvert at 7:39 AM on May 8, 2023
I was really curious about this market but the article has zero info on who is buying the tank engines. Also no info on how they were stolen and shipped.
posted by srboisvert at 7:39 AM on May 8, 2023
The T90 has a V12 diesel engine. It would be pretty funny if Ukrainian farmers had bought stolen engines for home brew tractors.
Russia has exported T90s and they are built under licence by India so there are lots of customers out there for spares in whole or parted out.
But a big engine like that can also be used for all sorts of purposes including stationary duty turning pumps and other equipment. Stolen parts like that are often purchased for pennies on the dollar of the retail price.
posted by Mitheral at 9:32 AM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Russia has exported T90s and they are built under licence by India so there are lots of customers out there for spares in whole or parted out.
But a big engine like that can also be used for all sorts of purposes including stationary duty turning pumps and other equipment. Stolen parts like that are often purchased for pennies on the dollar of the retail price.
posted by Mitheral at 9:32 AM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
The Washington Post is reporting that Britain is preparing to provide long-range (~300km) missiles. (Link is paywalled but I was able to read it on my phone.) I hope this turns out to be true, this is something that has been urgently needed for quite some time.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:41 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Dip Flash at 4:41 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Will those missiles have strings attached? The US for instance don't want US-provided missile to strike on Russian territory, something I can sympathise with, but makes the Ukrainians fight with one hand tied behind their back. 300 km deep strikes inside Russian would wreak havoc on their supply lines.
posted by Harald74 at 10:12 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 10:12 PM on May 8, 2023
Today is Victory Day parade in Russia, but it looks to be a pretty scaled down one. Some regions have cancelled theirs altogether, and I was actually thinking that drone strike over the Kremlin the other day would be a pretext to cancel the whole thing.
That CNN article also says that last year there was an air show, but it was actually cancelled due to "bad weather".
I read somewhere, but can't find it now, that the Immortal Regiment part of the parade will be cancelled. I contrast with previous years, when pictures of everybody's great grandfathers were displayed, now there would be quite a lot of pictures from the current Russian military, enough to embarrass the authorities.
posted by Harald74 at 10:19 PM on May 8, 2023
That CNN article also says that last year there was an air show, but it was actually cancelled due to "bad weather".
I read somewhere, but can't find it now, that the Immortal Regiment part of the parade will be cancelled. I contrast with previous years, when pictures of everybody's great grandfathers were displayed, now there would be quite a lot of pictures from the current Russian military, enough to embarrass the authorities.
posted by Harald74 at 10:19 PM on May 8, 2023
Mick Ryan commenting on a thread about Russian fortifications along a part of the front where they expect Ukrainian attacks:
First this is a very extensively fortified region with multiple defensive zones in depth. It is impossible to create such a complex for the entire length of the front line being defended by the Russians.posted by Harald74 at 10:28 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
...
Second, following on from this, it also provides insights into the Russian’s appreciation of the ‘most dangerous’ and ‘most likely’ courses of action for the Ukrainians in their offensives.
BTW, our own jscalzi writes about Mick Ryans new book White Sun War on his blog.
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Collin Meisel, associate director of geopolitical analysis at the University of Denver in War on the Rocks: Failures in the “Deterrence Failure” Dialogue:
In reflecting on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine over the past year, some observers have drawn a clear conclusion: deterrence failed.posted by Harald74 at 10:43 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
It is unequivocally true that the United States failed to deter President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine despite clear threats of a “swift, severe and united response” in the form of sanctions and “moving a pipeline” of defensive equipment through to Ukraine’s military in advance of the invasion. But this failure has come with a laudable deterrence success: preventing a wider war. Focusing only on the former at the expense of the latter muddies conversations about deterrence and risks drawing the wrong lessons for policymakers seeking to deter future aggression.
Ok, the parade is over. Changes from earlier years were no Immortal Regiment and no flyover. A bit surprising was that the only tank present was a single T-34/85. They've rolled out 10 or 11 of the things at earlier parades. And could they really not find a single modern tank to show off? All in all, there were 50-ish military vehicles, down from the usual number of around 200.
posted by Harald74 at 1:37 AM on May 9, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 1:37 AM on May 9, 2023
I was hoping for a drone dropping blue and yellow streamers or something, but was disappointed.
posted by Harald74 at 1:38 AM on May 9, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 1:38 AM on May 9, 2023
Putin's speech was also nothing to write home about. Fairly short, and looking only backwards, not setting a course for the country or anything.
posted by Harald74 at 1:39 AM on May 9, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 1:39 AM on May 9, 2023
In my imaginary version of events the tanks for today’s parade were left unattended overnight in a nearby staging area where they were stolen by Ukrainian farmers and their tractors.
posted by interogative mood at 3:46 AM on May 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:46 AM on May 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
Some thoughts on the deterrence article.
At this point the only thing we can deter is further escalation of the war the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, the widening of the war into NATO countries with direct or asymmetric attacks such as terrorist incidents, the direct involvement of Belarus or another Russian ally or other as yet unseen horrors this conflict might impose on the world.
We didn’t deter Russia from starting this madness. I think the failure there is the result of experts thinking either that Russia too strong (and Ukraine too weak) or Russia too weak.
Camp one thought was so powerful they could overrun the Baltic states in hours and we really shouldn’t risk ww3 for a country with the recent history of Ukraine — specifically they have had pro-western revolutions in the past that have seemingly inevitably fallen apart with some resurgent pro-Russian oligarch taking power. They looked at it and concluded that there wasn’t anything we could do. If we armed the Ukrainians and their army didn’t fight or they collapsed, or the war didn’t happen and a pro-Russian politician came back then Russia would get access to all our best weapons. So they didn’t push for stronger action to deter Russia, because it was hopeless.
Camp 2 saw Russia as too weak to pull this off. They cane to this conclusions after looking closely at recent Russian efforts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and even Ukraine 2014. Where the Russia strong camp saw a resurgent Russian military; they saw what turned out to be the fact — a crumbling shell of an army that was made to put on parade; but not fight a war. They looked at their calendars and said late Feb 2022 is the worst possible time you could invade Ukraine surely the Russians understand mud season.
From that they concluded this was all just saber rattling and Ukraine would ultimately make some concessions about NATO and that would be that. They thought a bit of western pressure and surely cut a deal.
posted by interogative mood at 5:14 AM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
At this point the only thing we can deter is further escalation of the war the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, the widening of the war into NATO countries with direct or asymmetric attacks such as terrorist incidents, the direct involvement of Belarus or another Russian ally or other as yet unseen horrors this conflict might impose on the world.
We didn’t deter Russia from starting this madness. I think the failure there is the result of experts thinking either that Russia too strong (and Ukraine too weak) or Russia too weak.
Camp one thought was so powerful they could overrun the Baltic states in hours and we really shouldn’t risk ww3 for a country with the recent history of Ukraine — specifically they have had pro-western revolutions in the past that have seemingly inevitably fallen apart with some resurgent pro-Russian oligarch taking power. They looked at it and concluded that there wasn’t anything we could do. If we armed the Ukrainians and their army didn’t fight or they collapsed, or the war didn’t happen and a pro-Russian politician came back then Russia would get access to all our best weapons. So they didn’t push for stronger action to deter Russia, because it was hopeless.
Camp 2 saw Russia as too weak to pull this off. They cane to this conclusions after looking closely at recent Russian efforts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and even Ukraine 2014. Where the Russia strong camp saw a resurgent Russian military; they saw what turned out to be the fact — a crumbling shell of an army that was made to put on parade; but not fight a war. They looked at their calendars and said late Feb 2022 is the worst possible time you could invade Ukraine surely the Russians understand mud season.
From that they concluded this was all just saber rattling and Ukraine would ultimately make some concessions about NATO and that would be that. They thought a bit of western pressure and surely cut a deal.
posted by interogative mood at 5:14 AM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Will those missiles have strings attached? The US for instance don't want US-provided missile to strike on Russian territory, something I can sympathise with, but makes the Ukrainians fight with one hand tied behind their back. 300 km deep strikes inside Russian would wreak havoc on their supply lines.
The article touched on it, including quotes from Ukrainian officials repeating commitments to not strike beyond their borders. So I'd guess that if this happens, that will be the expectation. But longer range would bring all or most of Crimea under fire, for example, even without pushing the limits on the actual border.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:51 AM on May 9, 2023
The article touched on it, including quotes from Ukrainian officials repeating commitments to not strike beyond their borders. So I'd guess that if this happens, that will be the expectation. But longer range would bring all or most of Crimea under fire, for example, even without pushing the limits on the actual border.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:51 AM on May 9, 2023
How Russia Is Losing Billions in Weapons Sales to the Ukraine War | WSJ
Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, but the war in Ukraine could change that as Moscow’s share of the global weapons trade declines. What else has impacted this important revenue stream for Vladimir Putin as well as hurt some of the Kremlin’s international influence?
WSJ explains how sanctions since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine last year as well as domestic need for weapons hurt Russia’s arms exports.
posted by srboisvert at 11:24 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, but the war in Ukraine could change that as Moscow’s share of the global weapons trade declines. What else has impacted this important revenue stream for Vladimir Putin as well as hurt some of the Kremlin’s international influence?
WSJ explains how sanctions since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine last year as well as domestic need for weapons hurt Russia’s arms exports.
posted by srboisvert at 11:24 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mick Ryan commenting on a thread about Russian fortifications along a part of the front where they expect Ukrainian attacks:
First this is a very extensively fortified region with multiple defensive zones in depth. It is impossible to create such a complex for the entire length of the front line being defended by the Russians.
...
Second, following on from this, it also provides insights into the Russian’s appreciation of the ‘most dangerous’ and ‘most likely’ courses of action for the Ukrainians in their offensives.
Apparently Ukraine overran a heavily fortified and defended line overlooking their supply road into Bakhmut and moved the front about a kilometer further north from the road with a coordinated Himars and artillery attack followed by overnight infantry and special forces attacks.
It doesn't look like the Russian defensive lines are the huge obstacles some war pundits are making them out to be and concentrated coordinated attacks should be able to roll over them relatively quickly.
posted by srboisvert at 12:30 PM on May 9, 2023
First this is a very extensively fortified region with multiple defensive zones in depth. It is impossible to create such a complex for the entire length of the front line being defended by the Russians.
...
Second, following on from this, it also provides insights into the Russian’s appreciation of the ‘most dangerous’ and ‘most likely’ courses of action for the Ukrainians in their offensives.
Apparently Ukraine overran a heavily fortified and defended line overlooking their supply road into Bakhmut and moved the front about a kilometer further north from the road with a coordinated Himars and artillery attack followed by overnight infantry and special forces attacks.
It doesn't look like the Russian defensive lines are the huge obstacles some war pundits are making them out to be and concentrated coordinated attacks should be able to roll over them relatively quickly.
posted by srboisvert at 12:30 PM on May 9, 2023
Apparently Ukraine overran a heavily fortified and defended line overlooking their supply road into Bakhmut and moved the front about a kilometer further north from the road with a coordinated Himars and artillery attack followed by overnight infantry and special forces attacks.
Of course it will be tragic, it's war, but I will laugh so hard if it turns out that the big counteroffensive runs right through both Bakhmut flanks and encircles all the Wagner remnants, en route to the Azov Sea.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:47 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Of course it will be tragic, it's war, but I will laugh so hard if it turns out that the big counteroffensive runs right through both Bakhmut flanks and encircles all the Wagner remnants, en route to the Azov Sea.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:47 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
From watching combat videos (do. not. recommend) I can pretty reliably conclude that when you're attacking these trenches and you have overhead copter drones, not even the grenade drones, just ordinary camera drones, the fortifications wind up giving more cover to the attackers than to the defenders.
The defenders are deep in, and so the angles from which they can fire are far narrower than 360. From the videos I'd estimate most of these Russian foxholes let the defenders swing their rifles around 60 degrees at most. With the drones letting you know where the foxholes are, and which ones are actually occupied, the attackers can sidestep those firing angles, throw in grenades by hand, and then it's over. And for the remaining 300 degrees, those foxholes provide cover to the attacker rather than the defender.
Meanwhile, Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian fortifications have to actually find those positions looking on foot. The Ukrainians have way more time to peek out and fire long before the soldiers are ready to do the same thing, because the Russians attackers are also the reconnaissance spotters looking for those foxholes.
I expect the Russian digging efforts to be more futile than the Magino line.
posted by ocschwar at 11:27 PM on May 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
The defenders are deep in, and so the angles from which they can fire are far narrower than 360. From the videos I'd estimate most of these Russian foxholes let the defenders swing their rifles around 60 degrees at most. With the drones letting you know where the foxholes are, and which ones are actually occupied, the attackers can sidestep those firing angles, throw in grenades by hand, and then it's over. And for the remaining 300 degrees, those foxholes provide cover to the attacker rather than the defender.
Meanwhile, Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian fortifications have to actually find those positions looking on foot. The Ukrainians have way more time to peek out and fire long before the soldiers are ready to do the same thing, because the Russians attackers are also the reconnaissance spotters looking for those foxholes.
I expect the Russian digging efforts to be more futile than the Magino line.
posted by ocschwar at 11:27 PM on May 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
Mick Ryan again, throwing some shade on Gerasimov, saying that he's probably worth more to the Ukrainians alive and directing the Russian effort than dead by assassination.
posted by Harald74 at 11:40 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:40 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
srboisvert: Apparently Ukraine overran a heavily fortified and defended line overlooking their supply road into Bakhmut
Eight square kilometers near Bakhmut de-occupied.
Apparently between Wagner's maybe-not-retreating-after-all-but-still-not-receiving-ammo and the Russian forces not-filling-the-gaps there was a nice window of opportunity.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:34 AM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Eight square kilometers near Bakhmut de-occupied.
Apparently between Wagner's maybe-not-retreating-after-all-but-still-not-receiving-ammo and the Russian forces not-filling-the-gaps there was a nice window of opportunity.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:34 AM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Seems like several sources has reported this, and Prigozhin commented on what could be the same development: "Today the Ministry of Defence fled from one of our (Wagner PMC in Bakhmut) flanks, abandoning their positions, all ran away and bare a front nearly two kilometres wide and five hundred metres deep";
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on May 10, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on May 10, 2023
Greg Yudin on defeat: One important indicator for me is how often people in Russia talk about possible defeat. I must confess that it happens now really often, which is a dramatic turn from the early months of the war. For quite a while, nobody took the word “defeat” in their mouth, even if they considered the invasion to be an insane choice. That has changed.
posted by Harald74 at 1:22 AM on May 10, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:22 AM on May 10, 2023 [5 favorites]
The parts that Ukraine overran were likely not very heavily fortified or defended. This video provides more details on the defense in depth fortifications the Russians have made elsewhere using satellite imagery. It'd be interesting to see if Bahkmut has anything similar behind Russia's front line.
posted by srboisvert at 1:09 PM on May 10, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 1:09 PM on May 10, 2023
By definition, if you overrun something, it was not heavily fortified or defended.
I'm left wondering how far this Russian retreat extends.
posted by hippybear at 1:11 PM on May 10, 2023
I'm left wondering how far this Russian retreat extends.
posted by hippybear at 1:11 PM on May 10, 2023
By definition, if you overrun something, it was not heavily fortified or defended.
It's a bit more nuanced:
* heavily fortified but lightly defended because of insufficient or badly trained personnel: easily overrun. Though it could possibly take some time because of nooks and crannies where small numbers of defenders may hold out, but as a defensive asset it's already eliminated.
* heavily fortified and strongly defended in the general sense, but vulnerable to a particular mode of attack that wasn't taken into account: may well be easy to overrun if you take advantage of that vulnerability.
The Belgian fort Eben-Emael was a bit of both when the Germans attacked it at the start of WW2; only the core personnel was present, not the gunners, and the attack was performed by paratroopers using gliders, simply landing on top of the fort where it was built to defend against a surface attack.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:58 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's a bit more nuanced:
* heavily fortified but lightly defended because of insufficient or badly trained personnel: easily overrun. Though it could possibly take some time because of nooks and crannies where small numbers of defenders may hold out, but as a defensive asset it's already eliminated.
* heavily fortified and strongly defended in the general sense, but vulnerable to a particular mode of attack that wasn't taken into account: may well be easy to overrun if you take advantage of that vulnerability.
The Belgian fort Eben-Emael was a bit of both when the Germans attacked it at the start of WW2; only the core personnel was present, not the gunners, and the attack was performed by paratroopers using gliders, simply landing on top of the fort where it was built to defend against a surface attack.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:58 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here's a bird site thread on the Russia's defense in depth in some areas of the front:
https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584439135531011
posted by srboisvert at 3:05 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584439135531011
posted by srboisvert at 3:05 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Essentially the above example has the heavily fortified defensive line with tank trenches and dragons teeth at least 9km behind the forward line. I have no clue if this kind of defense is employed at Bakhmut though.
posted by srboisvert at 3:12 PM on May 10, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 3:12 PM on May 10, 2023
I think that building such a defensive line is not going to go well if your equipment will be within range of enemy artillery and grenade-carrying drones. Diggers and cranes are just as valuable as targets as tanks and other frontline vehicles.
So there may well be some of that on the Russian side of the Bakhmut front, but not as thorough as in places further back.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:34 PM on May 10, 2023
So there may well be some of that on the Russian side of the Bakhmut front, but not as thorough as in places further back.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:34 PM on May 10, 2023
For nine months Russians have been dying by the hundreds to capture distances measured in meters, blocks and parts of buildings. In a few hours the Ukrainians managed to retake 8 square kilometers. Let’s not get too caught up on semantics. This is an urban area with lots of partially demolished concrete structures, trenches, mines, snipers and other hazards for both sides.
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 4:19 PM on May 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
That's not the part that Ukraine captured though. The city proper is still mostly held by Russia other than a small sliver. Ukraine took ground on the flanks. Important flanks but not the formerly urban landscape.
posted by srboisvert at 5:51 PM on May 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 5:51 PM on May 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Diggers and cranes are just as valuable as targets as tanks and other frontline vehicles.
Amen. I remember a video of Ukrainians being very happy for knocking out a Russian BTM-3 trench digging machine, but I can't seem to find it now.
posted by Harald74 at 11:54 PM on May 10, 2023
Amen. I remember a video of Ukrainians being very happy for knocking out a Russian BTM-3 trench digging machine, but I can't seem to find it now.
posted by Harald74 at 11:54 PM on May 10, 2023
It's not this one, but Ukraine forces clearly consider performing a raid across the front line to destroy a digger to outweigh the risks.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:35 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Stoneshop at 2:35 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
CNN claims that the UK has provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Seems to be the export version with about 250 km range. Providing the longer-ranged version, while more desirable, would go against the Missile Technology Control Regime.
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on May 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Seems to be the export version with about 250 km range. Providing the longer-ranged version, while more desirable, would go against the Missile Technology Control Regime.
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on May 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
And confirmed!
A whole new headache for Russian logistics, I guess.
posted by Harald74 at 6:50 AM on May 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
A whole new headache for Russian logistics, I guess.
posted by Harald74 at 6:50 AM on May 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
That is a really remarkable video. That link is actually the second half of a longer video (which I don't recommend watching), which involves a drone badly wounding a Russian soldier, who then kills himself with his own grenade, directly in front of this guy's foxhole. At that point he very smartly decides to nope out of the situation and coordinates with the Ukrainian drone operators, as shown in this portion of the video. I'm happy for him that he made it out safely. The smartest thing for most of the Russian soldiers would be to do the same thing, and choose to live instead of being killed miserably in a trench.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:23 AM on May 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 11:23 AM on May 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: No one dies in the footage
There is a longer version (about 5 minutes, this one's 3) showing more of the effort he had to make to reach the Ukrainian trenches. That one's more gnarly. A lot more so, especially before you get to see this guy signalling that he doesn't want to share the fate of the rest of the trench. Not linked.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:32 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
There is a longer version (about 5 minutes, this one's 3) showing more of the effort he had to make to reach the Ukrainian trenches. That one's more gnarly. A lot more so, especially before you get to see this guy signalling that he doesn't want to share the fate of the rest of the trench. Not linked.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:32 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Dip Flash: coordinates with the Ukrainian drone operators
In one of the comments on Reddit someone noted that he uses valid sign language to make his intent clear, that he would need to avoid "bad people who kill", and "I am not bad". Kudos to the Ukrainian operators who at least got the gist.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:43 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
In one of the comments on Reddit someone noted that he uses valid sign language to make his intent clear, that he would need to avoid "bad people who kill", and "I am not bad". Kudos to the Ukrainian operators who at least got the gist.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:43 AM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
So do Ukrainian drones just carry surrender instructions on spec or did they fly back and forth?
posted by Mitheral at 12:09 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 12:09 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm suddenly imagining an updated version of 1917, shot from the POV of a drone trying to guide a soldier to a safe surrender point.
posted by SPrintF at 12:16 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by SPrintF at 12:16 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
In this case, after the Ukrainian operators spot the soldier the video shows a plastic bag with a note being attached to a drone, then the note being dropped. It's not clear if that was another drone or the same one, but that doesn't really make a difference; it wasn't a pre-planned action.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:22 PM on May 11, 2023
posted by Stoneshop at 12:22 PM on May 11, 2023
I like to think of the Ukrainians having drones with two payloads, one a grenade and one a note. I know that's not what they're doing, but it feels nicer somehow.
posted by hippybear at 12:57 PM on May 11, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:57 PM on May 11, 2023 [4 favorites]
Well, Ukrainian drone operators were nice enough to shoo a fox away before they started dropping grenades (at 0:45) on Russian trenches. Attack at night with a thermal imaging drone.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:55 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Stoneshop at 1:55 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Anyone know what the music is in the background of linked footage of a Russian surrendering to a drone above? It's beautifully plaintive.
The part of this that makes me really wince is knowing that the Ukrainians are going to swap him back to the Russians for their own people who are prisoners as soon as they can. It's not like the guy has reached a sanctuary.
posted by Jane the Brown at 3:38 PM on May 11, 2023
The part of this that makes me really wince is knowing that the Ukrainians are going to swap him back to the Russians for their own people who are prisoners as soon as they can. It's not like the guy has reached a sanctuary.
posted by Jane the Brown at 3:38 PM on May 11, 2023
So do Ukrainian drones just carry surrender instructions on spec or did they fly back and forth?
They've used this tactic to drop instructions to civilians to guide them out of minefields and combat zones.
posted by ocschwar at 3:46 PM on May 11, 2023
They've used this tactic to drop instructions to civilians to guide them out of minefields and combat zones.
posted by ocschwar at 3:46 PM on May 11, 2023
Anyone know what the music is in the background of linked footage of a Russian surrendering to a drone above?
The song is Wayfaring Stranger, an old sacred harp hymn. I'd guess the best-known modernish version is Johnny Cash's.
The particular version appears to be Jos Slovick's from the film 1917, but I haven't seen that and am bad at identifying specific singers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:04 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
The song is Wayfaring Stranger, an old sacred harp hymn. I'd guess the best-known modernish version is Johnny Cash's.
The particular version appears to be Jos Slovick's from the film 1917, but I haven't seen that and am bad at identifying specific singers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:04 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Every post I've seen on this event has concentrated on the life-affirming part. Which is understandable.
If you're watching youtube clips it is because the videos get demonetized and downranked if they show deaths. So the channels that want $$$ edit clips to not show violence happening, deaths or bodies.
posted by srboisvert at 5:30 PM on May 11, 2023
If you're watching youtube clips it is because the videos get demonetized and downranked if they show deaths. So the channels that want $$$ edit clips to not show violence happening, deaths or bodies.
posted by srboisvert at 5:30 PM on May 11, 2023
The singer is Jos Slovik from the movie 1917.
Thank you, GCU Sweet and Full of Grace! I wouldn't have figured that out without you.
posted by Jane the Brown at 5:35 PM on May 11, 2023
Thank you, GCU Sweet and Full of Grace! I wouldn't have figured that out without you.
posted by Jane the Brown at 5:35 PM on May 11, 2023
Looks like Ukraine is making at least a successful feint or attempt to surround Bakhmut on both the northern and southern flanks either to trap Wagner or to force Russia to reinforce Wagner and weaken other points on the front. It'll be interesting to see what ground they may take in the next few days. Do they get further than Russia/Wagner's zero line? Do they encircle Bakhmut and starve Wagner out? Can Russia deliver supplies via drones to an encircled Bakhmut like Ukraine did with Mariupol's steel plant? Feels like things are starting to happen and there's an attempt to break the stalemate.
posted by srboisvert at 5:43 PM on May 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 5:43 PM on May 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Many of the most corrupted super spreaders of Russian propaganda in Germany had a party at the Russian embassy in Berlin, presumably to celebrate the anniversary of Soviet atrocities in WW2 and Russia’s genocidal war on Ukraine today.
- Former SPD Chancellor and current Putin lackey Gerhard Schröder
- Former East German Communist party leader Egon Krenz (sentenced to six-and-a-half years imprisonment for Cold War crimes including manslaughter of four Germans attempting to escape East Germany over the Berlin Wall and electoral fraud)
- Extreme right AfD party leaders Alexander Gauland and Tino Chrupalla
- Leftist party Die Linke Porsche-driving politician Klaus Ernst
- Berliner Zeitung newspaper owner Holger Friedrich
Berliner Zeitung was the only German paper to uncritically carry Seymour Hersh’s conspiracy theory on the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines (not going to link the articles here), which surprised me at the time. They continue to pump out stories along those lines. Not a surprise then to see the owner show up at the party then (no other German media came).
posted by UN at 2:07 AM on May 12, 2023 [6 favorites]
- Former SPD Chancellor and current Putin lackey Gerhard Schröder
- Former East German Communist party leader Egon Krenz (sentenced to six-and-a-half years imprisonment for Cold War crimes including manslaughter of four Germans attempting to escape East Germany over the Berlin Wall and electoral fraud)
- Extreme right AfD party leaders Alexander Gauland and Tino Chrupalla
- Leftist party Die Linke Porsche-driving politician Klaus Ernst
- Berliner Zeitung newspaper owner Holger Friedrich
Berliner Zeitung was the only German paper to uncritically carry Seymour Hersh’s conspiracy theory on the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines (not going to link the articles here), which surprised me at the time. They continue to pump out stories along those lines. Not a surprise then to see the owner show up at the party then (no other German media came).
posted by UN at 2:07 AM on May 12, 2023 [6 favorites]
Jane the Brown: the Ukrainians are going to swap him back to the Russians for their own people
PoWs can ask not being swapped; this guy would have good reason to, and it would very likely be granted.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:06 PM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
PoWs can ask not being swapped; this guy would have good reason to, and it would very likely be granted.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:06 PM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
But I suspect he'll be ok. At least as ok as any Russian citizen can be. I haven't heard of Russia persecuting any POW. If I'm mistaken, I hope someone will correct me.
They they taped a returned POW's head to a wall and then sledgehammered him to death and released the video for the world to see. I'd say that counts as persecution.
posted by srboisvert at 1:44 PM on May 12, 2023
They they taped a returned POW's head to a wall and then sledgehammered him to death and released the video for the world to see. I'd say that counts as persecution.
posted by srboisvert at 1:44 PM on May 12, 2023
Mixed bag, they are all screened and coached by the FSB. Even the most outspoken / intelligent / honest ones recant everything once back home and claim their voluntary interviews with Volodimir and Dmitry were forced, scripted, with machine gunners just out of frame.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:40 PM on May 12, 2023
posted by Meatbomb at 3:40 PM on May 12, 2023
For the Russian Air Force yesterday was a day high on the 'Blyat' scale: two jet aircraft and two helicopters were shot down in Bryansk Oblast, all of them some 40km from the Ukrainian border. It's unclear if these were friendly fire incidents or Ukrainian actions.
The day before they had already lost a helicopter over Crimea, reportedly a technical failure.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:14 AM on May 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
The day before they had already lost a helicopter over Crimea, reportedly a technical failure.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:14 AM on May 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
WaPo: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says . Yevgeniy Prigozhin said he would tell Ukraine’s military where to attack Russian troops if they pulled their own forces back from the beleaguered city of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses .
How the fuck has this dude not been poisoned yet?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:45 PM on May 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
How the fuck has this dude not been poisoned yet?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:45 PM on May 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
WaPo: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says . Yevgeniy Prigozhin said he would tell Ukraine’s military where to attack Russian troops if they pulled their own forces back from the beleaguered city of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses .
That article is absolutely wild. Supposedly he is talking and maybe making/offering deals directly with the Ukrainians. But at the same time, supposedly the Russian government knows about those conversations, and the Ukrainians know that the Russians know, and the Russians know that the Ukrainians know that the Russians know. And, of course, the Americans know, since it is their intel that was leaked, and now Prigozhin is posting about it on Telegram.
There are way more layers of intrigue than a Le Carre book.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:58 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
That article is absolutely wild. Supposedly he is talking and maybe making/offering deals directly with the Ukrainians. But at the same time, supposedly the Russian government knows about those conversations, and the Ukrainians know that the Russians know, and the Russians know that the Ukrainians know that the Russians know. And, of course, the Americans know, since it is their intel that was leaked, and now Prigozhin is posting about it on Telegram.
There are way more layers of intrigue than a Le Carre book.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:58 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Prigozhin story is so crazy that if it wasn’t in the discord leaks I’d assume that it was just BS invented to sew chaos among the Russians. As it is now I’m wondering if the Discord Leaks haven’t been a massive allied deception operation.
posted by interogative mood at 7:18 PM on May 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:18 PM on May 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
I’m wondering if the Discord Leaks haven’t been a massive allied deception operation.
Coming to Netflix, The Troll Who Never Was, the true story of Operation Mince Potato.
posted by SPrintF at 7:46 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
Coming to Netflix, The Troll Who Never Was, the true story of Operation Mince Potato.
posted by SPrintF at 7:46 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
The biggest German aid package yet was just delivered. Some background from the NY Times.
posted by Harald74 at 11:00 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:00 PM on May 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
(Prigozhin) How the fuck has this dude not been poisoned yet?
A man stuck between a window, a bunch of sledgehammers and a field of rotting corpses.
posted by UN at 12:16 AM on May 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
A man stuck between a window, a bunch of sledgehammers and a field of rotting corpses.
posted by UN at 12:16 AM on May 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
How the fuck has this dude not been poisoned yet?
Given that he seems to control the superior fighting force on the invader's side, this may be an application of LBJ's maxim ("better inside the tent pissing out...")
posted by stevis23 at 6:45 AM on May 15, 2023
Given that he seems to control the superior fighting force on the invader's side, this may be an application of LBJ's maxim ("better inside the tent pissing out...")
posted by stevis23 at 6:45 AM on May 15, 2023
For Putin's survival, having his security forces fractured and competing is a feature, not a bug. (But for his invasion, the lack of central command and control has obviously not been a plus.) They are mostly careful to not directly criticize him in public, and lately it seems like the various factions are competing to blame the others for the overall failure of the war.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:49 AM on May 15, 2023
posted by Dip Flash at 7:49 AM on May 15, 2023
The Prigozhin story is so crazy that if it wasn’t in the discord leaks I’d assume that it was just BS invented to sew chaos among the Russians. As it is now I’m wondering if the Discord Leaks haven’t been a massive allied deception operation.
For what it is worth, he is now denying that he offered to cut any deals with Ukraine, and Putin's spokesman said that “it looks like another hoax.” So whatever the truth is (and my money is on him having made the offer, whether or not it was genuine), he's not yet publicly out of favor with the Kremlin.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:05 PM on May 15, 2023
For what it is worth, he is now denying that he offered to cut any deals with Ukraine, and Putin's spokesman said that “it looks like another hoax.” So whatever the truth is (and my money is on him having made the offer, whether or not it was genuine), he's not yet publicly out of favor with the Kremlin.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:05 PM on May 15, 2023
Both France and the UK have the previous days announced that they will train Ukrainian pilots. The UK has also stated that this will aim to teach them Nato tactics and procedures, and later convert them to F-16s. The actual planes will need to be sourced elsewhere, but both the Netherlands and Norway have a well-maintained fleet they are phasing out. Denmark will soon transition to F-35 as well, and their jets will be surplus. (Reminder that Denmark donated all of their artillery to Ukraine)
posted by Harald74 at 11:07 PM on May 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:07 PM on May 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
6 more hypersonic missiles were used to attack Kyiv in an apparent attempt to overwhelm the Patriot missile defense batteries. The Patriots system got them all.
posted by interogative mood at 12:50 AM on May 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:50 AM on May 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
6 more hypersonic missiles were used to attack Kyiv in an apparent attempt to overwhelm the Patriot missile defense batteries. The Patriots system got them all.
I suspect there is a lot of congratulatory backslapping going on in the management offices of Raytheon right now. It's hard to imagine a way for them to get better free marketing.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:09 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
I suspect there is a lot of congratulatory backslapping going on in the management offices of Raytheon right now. It's hard to imagine a way for them to get better free marketing.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:09 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't think Putin was planning to give a big boost to the American defense industry, but I could come up with a not-very-plausible conspiracy.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:06 AM on May 16, 2023
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:06 AM on May 16, 2023
"All six Kinzhals intercepted the Patriot missiles fired at them."
posted by Stoneshop at 9:34 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 9:34 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
And in what must be totally unrelated news: "At least three Russian scientists who have worked on hypersonic missile development have been arrested on suspicion of treason over the past year, their colleagues said in an open letter published Monday."
posted by Stoneshop at 9:49 AM on May 16, 2023
These and other treason cases targeting Russian scientists have had a chilling effect on young researchers, the Siberian RAS members said.Two of the arrests were back in August 2022, which was reported by CNN.
“Dropping levels of research due to aging scientists and the disrupted continuity in the generations of experts will […] gradually become irreversible and rapid.”
posted by Stoneshop at 9:49 AM on May 16, 2023
The Russians are claiming to have hit one of the Patriot batteries, and there is some video circulating which seems to show a series of SAM launches and then at least one explosion on the ground in the same area which doesn't seem to be related to a SAM launch. I'm dubious right now of the Russian claims, but I'm looking for confirmation one way or the other. If they did succeed in causing serious damage to a Patriot battery it would temper the claims of success for the Patriots a bit.
posted by Reverend John at 10:03 AM on May 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 10:03 AM on May 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
No, the Patriots have been wildly successful at hitting missiles that were supposed to be able to not be hit by Patriot missiles. That one of their battery launchers might be destroyed says absolutely nothing at all about the claims of success for the Patriot missiles and their effectiveness.
posted by hippybear at 10:45 AM on May 16, 2023
posted by hippybear at 10:45 AM on May 16, 2023
While there clearly is a ground-level explosion at the end, and roughly in the direction where you could see the second set of Patriots coming from, you couldn't tell if it was even near a Patriot launcher, due to the distances involved and buildings blocking the view. That split-screen view at the end is not showing any detail either.
And a Patriot system is radar + command and control + launchers. Hitting a launcher? Just hope there's no one near it, otherwise it's no big deal.
The problem with Kinzhals is that as long as they're hypersonic they can't maneuver, simply because aerodynamics says no. So you can determine its course , calculate where it will be x seconds later and point your missile to be there too. They can maneuver once their speed drops to supersonic, but targeting, tracking and hitting a supersonic missile is a solved problem. So, the Russian claim of them being unstoppable is just balderdash. Poppycock. Hogwash.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:27 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
And a Patriot system is radar + command and control + launchers. Hitting a launcher? Just hope there's no one near it, otherwise it's no big deal.
The problem with Kinzhals is that as long as they're hypersonic they can't maneuver, simply because aerodynamics says no. So you can determine its course , calculate where it will be x seconds later and point your missile to be there too. They can maneuver once their speed drops to supersonic, but targeting, tracking and hitting a supersonic missile is a solved problem. So, the Russian claim of them being unstoppable is just balderdash. Poppycock. Hogwash.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:27 AM on May 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
CNN says the US is assessing potential damage to the Patriot system in Kyiv. We’ll have to wait for more details. We don’t know what hit it and what parts of the system were damaged. I’m sure the Pentagon/Raytheon are working to figure out if the Russians have figured out a weakness or got lucky. Equipment gets damaged and destroyed in war. Part of the enormous wastefulness of war is just how much stuff that would normally be thought of as a durable good becomes basically disposable.
posted by interogative mood at 11:40 AM on May 16, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 11:40 AM on May 16, 2023
The May 4 single hypersonic missle was shot down, this round, Russians sent six.
I believe there are two Patriot systems in Ukraine, they need more.
Reverend John has been quite accurate about Patriot systems for a while in these threads.I tend to agree that " Patriot battery it would temper the claims of success for the Patriots a bit" One system is from Germany the other from the u.s. It makes little sense to give them one so they have two for just this reason, if one is off line, the other keep up defence while the other gets back on line. My concern is getting at least 6 more in to cover cities for continued counter offensive. bottom line, don't know if all six missiles were targeted towards one Patriot missile system, if that's the case, it did a fairly good job but still shows how we need more patriots in the theater to cover airspace if one system goes down.
posted by clavdivs at 12:55 PM on May 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I believe there are two Patriot systems in Ukraine, they need more.
Reverend John has been quite accurate about Patriot systems for a while in these threads.I tend to agree that " Patriot battery it would temper the claims of success for the Patriots a bit" One system is from Germany the other from the u.s. It makes little sense to give them one so they have two for just this reason, if one is off line, the other keep up defence while the other gets back on line. My concern is getting at least 6 more in to cover cities for continued counter offensive. bottom line, don't know if all six missiles were targeted towards one Patriot missile system, if that's the case, it did a fairly good job but still shows how we need more patriots in the theater to cover airspace if one system goes down.
posted by clavdivs at 12:55 PM on May 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I definitely agree that even if one missile got through and damaged the Patriot battery that downing 5 out of 6 is still a fantastic success, and argues for providing more Patriots to Ukraine for redundancy and increased range of coverage.
I also hope that we start providing even greater aid to Ukraine, including F-16's, ATACMS, and MQ-9 Reaper drones, as well as more Patriots, more tanks, and more everything. I can't believe at this point that there is resistance to giving Ukraine the tools they need to win this war. If you had told me in 1985 that the Republican Party would be resisting helping to arm a democracy in a former Soviet Republic in Eastern Europe against an invasion by the army of an authoritarian government in Russia, I don't think I would have believed you.
posted by Reverend John at 4:08 PM on May 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I also hope that we start providing even greater aid to Ukraine, including F-16's, ATACMS, and MQ-9 Reaper drones, as well as more Patriots, more tanks, and more everything. I can't believe at this point that there is resistance to giving Ukraine the tools they need to win this war. If you had told me in 1985 that the Republican Party would be resisting helping to arm a democracy in a former Soviet Republic in Eastern Europe against an invasion by the army of an authoritarian government in Russia, I don't think I would have believed you.
posted by Reverend John at 4:08 PM on May 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think they will get more Patriots now that they’ve proven their effectiveness. It is going to take time because of the cost of the system and the demand for them elsewhere. We’ve sent them a lot of other systems as well, the Patriots main extra capability is the ability to thwart these hypersonic missiles; but Russia needs to keep most of their supply of those in reserve and for their nuclear deterrent. They have what they’ve fired so far and whatever new ones they can manufacture each month or two. We saw this with their cruise missiles where they are basically down to what they can make in a month; then they do a big attack and then a few weeks go by.
posted by interogative mood at 9:17 PM on May 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:17 PM on May 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Some good news: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Dutch premier Mark Rutte agreed to build an international coalition to provide Kyiv with F-16s fighter jets.
Things seem to move faster once the 'international coalition to provide X-weapon' is formed, so I hope Ukraine gets those jets quickly.
I don't know anything about the pros and cons of this jet or that weapon ... but I'm sure the Ukrainians will figure out how to utilize them.
posted by UN at 3:05 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Things seem to move faster once the 'international coalition to provide X-weapon' is formed, so I hope Ukraine gets those jets quickly.
I don't know anything about the pros and cons of this jet or that weapon ... but I'm sure the Ukrainians will figure out how to utilize them.
posted by UN at 3:05 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
In more good news, relating to my post upthread about the party at the Russian Embassy in Berlin:
Gerhard Schröder’s wife, Soyeon Schröder-Kim, has been fired from her lobbying job at government owned company for attending the party.
First reaction: Nice! Finally.
Second reaction: Wait, Gerhard Schröder’s spouse had a cushy government sponsored job? And has been able to keep it until now??
posted by UN at 3:15 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Gerhard Schröder’s wife, Soyeon Schröder-Kim, has been fired from her lobbying job at government owned company for attending the party.
First reaction: Nice! Finally.
Second reaction: Wait, Gerhard Schröder’s spouse had a cushy government sponsored job? And has been able to keep it until now??
posted by UN at 3:15 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Wait, Gerhard Schröder
the answer to every question that follows from this is, said resignedly, "Yes."
posted by From Bklyn at 6:11 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
the answer to every question that follows from this is, said resignedly, "Yes."
posted by From Bklyn at 6:11 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
It must be so nerve racking in the Ukrainian and Russian command and military. Ukraine has what must be nearly an armored division worth of newly trained and equipped units ... waiting. They have some significant capacities pledged but not yet delivered. It sounds like they've made the calculation to wait a bit and go with more forces and maybe some longer range fires from the UK and France. The movement on the front looks like the prelude: forcing RF to continue reinforcing the Bahkmut area, hopefully thinning out defenses elsewhere for Kharkiv v2.0. If you are the commanders in that area though, you are getting chewed up and there are all these reinforcements on standby for an operation than you don't know the when or where of.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:43 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:43 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
For anyone still taking Seymour Hersh's "reporting" seriously on the subject of this war, there is this treasure. It's hard to tell what bit is more clownish: the sudden reappearance of Czechoslovakia, the assignment of Hungary as an ally of Ukraine, Poland wanting anything other than kicking Russia's ass, or the idea that Zelenskyy resigning would somehow stop Russia from invading his country.
posted by tavella at 9:27 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by tavella at 9:27 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
My vote is Czechoslovakia, but it’s a close race (to the bottom).
posted by Quasirandom at 9:39 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by Quasirandom at 9:39 AM on May 17, 2023
UN, I go a little beyond "I don't know anything about the pros and cons of this jet or that weapon ... but I'm sure the Ukrainians will figure out how to utilize them."
It's not possible for the Ukrainians to attack at a surprising location because I expect that everyplace even remotely plausible has been predicted.
I predict that they will make at least one, probably more, clever new uses of weapons and information.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:01 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's not possible for the Ukrainians to attack at a surprising location because I expect that everyplace even remotely plausible has been predicted.
I predict that they will make at least one, probably more, clever new uses of weapons and information.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:01 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Actually, wait, I left out the bit where the "glow of Stalingrad" was at all relevant to the contemporary Russian army even before they shit themselves in Ukraine, and the bit where he forgot that it was the USSR that fought in Stalingrad, including Ukrainian troops, including the general who led the defense, Andrey Yeryomenko.
posted by tavella at 12:45 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by tavella at 12:45 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I think we’ll be waiting longer for the major counter offensive. We’ll see localized stuff and and so called shaping operations but the big attack will probably wait for more of the equipment, supplies and soldiers to get in position. The allies are getting bolder and providing more advanced stuff to Ukraine, meanwhile Russia is getting weaker. Why start a fight in which 10,000 of your soldiers die when in a month I you might be able to win the same ground with only 1000.
posted by interogative mood at 3:51 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:51 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
In other news, the Russians are putting more effort into their ongoing genocide against Ukraine: Russia’s parliament approves bill to forcibly deport people from Ukraine’s occupied territories
posted by Harald74 at 12:09 PM on May 18, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 12:09 PM on May 18, 2023
I don't know anything about the pros and cons of this jet or that weapon ... but I'm sure the Ukrainians will figure out how to utilize them.
The cons are mostly garbage that Biden-bros have been pushing to excuse his slow rolling aid to Ukraine. One article said that Ukraine wouldn't be able to use F16s because they wouldn't be able to keep their runways clean or pave some extra length. Which is ridiculous. Ukraine is not a stone age country incapable of paving and cleaning a runway. Another point was that Russia would target Ukraine's F16 airbases once they had F16s as if they don't care about targeting the current Ukrainian air force which has been in the fight for almost 500 days. Just ridiculous FUD like what was published during the Main Battle Tank delays (Ukraine can't drive a tank. Ukraine can't maintain a tank. Ukraine can't get tanks gas.) By this point these 'analysts' should be seen for what they are: human bots willing to say anything to excuse the behavior of their bosses.
I believe that for the next couple of decades the US military and NATO will be having Ukrainians over as training instructors because they will, in very short order, know how to use the equipment much better than the completely green soldiers of the West.
I'd like to see Ukraine get more than just F16s though. The US is looking to dump their A10s and Ukraine's counter offensive would be a great place for an extremely durable low flying infantry support aircraft in conjunction with F16s deployed for SEAD/DEAD. It would also be a good test of US and NATO military doctrine to see if or how it can still work in an environment saturated with ATGMs and Manpads. Ukraine will need radar seeking missiles and permission to strike into Russia as well to take care of long range anti-aircraft defenses.
posted by srboisvert at 1:14 PM on May 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
The cons are mostly garbage that Biden-bros have been pushing to excuse his slow rolling aid to Ukraine. One article said that Ukraine wouldn't be able to use F16s because they wouldn't be able to keep their runways clean or pave some extra length. Which is ridiculous. Ukraine is not a stone age country incapable of paving and cleaning a runway. Another point was that Russia would target Ukraine's F16 airbases once they had F16s as if they don't care about targeting the current Ukrainian air force which has been in the fight for almost 500 days. Just ridiculous FUD like what was published during the Main Battle Tank delays (Ukraine can't drive a tank. Ukraine can't maintain a tank. Ukraine can't get tanks gas.) By this point these 'analysts' should be seen for what they are: human bots willing to say anything to excuse the behavior of their bosses.
I believe that for the next couple of decades the US military and NATO will be having Ukrainians over as training instructors because they will, in very short order, know how to use the equipment much better than the completely green soldiers of the West.
I'd like to see Ukraine get more than just F16s though. The US is looking to dump their A10s and Ukraine's counter offensive would be a great place for an extremely durable low flying infantry support aircraft in conjunction with F16s deployed for SEAD/DEAD. It would also be a good test of US and NATO military doctrine to see if or how it can still work in an environment saturated with ATGMs and Manpads. Ukraine will need radar seeking missiles and permission to strike into Russia as well to take care of long range anti-aircraft defenses.
posted by srboisvert at 1:14 PM on May 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
Here's my most recent Resistbot message to my congresspeople and President Biden. Feel free to text SIGN PVBOQI to 50409 if you're a US citizen and you'd like to send it to yours as well.
Please provide Ukraine with all of the weapons it needs to succeed in repelling the Russian invasion of their country, as fast as possible and in the quantities that they request. We should especially be working to provide Ukraine with an effective Air Force as soon as possible by supplying them with F-16 fighter jets as soon as possible. We should also try to supply them with other jets such as the F-18 or Saab JAS 39 Gripen as well if we can facilitate a deal to get them to Ukraine sooner or in addition to F-16 s. However, we should not use the possibility of supplying these other jets at a later time as a substitute for supplying F-16 s ASAP.posted by Reverend John at 4:04 PM on May 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Additionally we should be supplying Ukraine with other weapons systems to extend their capabilities and insure their success, including but not limited to the ATACMS long range missiles, MQ-9 Reaper drones, additional Patriot batteries, more M1 Abrams tanks, more M2 Bradley IFVs, more M777 howitzers, more 155mm shells, in short, more everything.
Please also extend economic assistance to Ukraine to help them maintain their economy and rebuild their infrastructure which has been destroyed by Russia.
Defending Ukraine is in the interest of the United States. A free, democratic, pro-Western Ukraine will be a valuable ally against authoritarian states like Russia who would seek to compromise our country after conquering Ukraine. Helping Ukraine succeed in defending itself is vital to our own security interests.
Thank you for your attention.
Yes, that green light from the US (country of origin for the F-16) follows the playbook for every major weapon systems thus far. Soon someone will donate a couple, and then the flood gates are open.
Ruslan Stefanchuk, leader of the Ukrainian parlament, was visiting Norway and popped by at Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, makers of among other stuff the NASAMS system. He posted to his social media "Something very interesting is coming to Ukraine soon!" So if he's not alluding to the additional NASAMS systems that are in the pipeline, I can think of two other items KDA has that would fall under the umbrella "very interesting". One is the Naval Strike Missile, available for a number of platforms, for example truck launched that would look great on a Black Sea beach somewhere. Semi-stealthy with dual use (both ship and land targets possible), so it could be very useful. The other is the 56 or so F-16s KDA is currently maintaining on behalf of the Norwegian government before they are handed off. Most of them already have buyers, I think, one is Rumania the other a private US firm, but there might be possibilities even so.
posted by Harald74 at 5:51 AM on May 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Ruslan Stefanchuk, leader of the Ukrainian parlament, was visiting Norway and popped by at Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, makers of among other stuff the NASAMS system. He posted to his social media "Something very interesting is coming to Ukraine soon!" So if he's not alluding to the additional NASAMS systems that are in the pipeline, I can think of two other items KDA has that would fall under the umbrella "very interesting". One is the Naval Strike Missile, available for a number of platforms, for example truck launched that would look great on a Black Sea beach somewhere. Semi-stealthy with dual use (both ship and land targets possible), so it could be very useful. The other is the 56 or so F-16s KDA is currently maintaining on behalf of the Norwegian government before they are handed off. Most of them already have buyers, I think, one is Rumania the other a private US firm, but there might be possibilities even so.
posted by Harald74 at 5:51 AM on May 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine [PDF]
A report by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)
A report by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)
The scale of Russian losses in 2022, combined with the Armed Forces of the Russianposted by Kabanos at 6:17 AM on May 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Federation confronting NATO systems they had not previously contended with, has caused a
significant deviation in Russian operations from the country’s doctrine. This report seeks to
outline how Russian forces have adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges
this has created for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. The report examines Russian
military adaptation by combat function.
Zelenskyy is heading towards Japan and the G7 summit right now, on a French military plane. That's a pretty clear signal from France right there.
posted by Harald74 at 9:17 PM on May 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:17 PM on May 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Looks like some sudden movement on f-16s.... Interesting.
posted by Jacen at 10:54 PM on May 19, 2023
posted by Jacen at 10:54 PM on May 19, 2023
Yeah, it seems like an accelerated version of the tank debacle. I just wonder who'll be the first to provide a couple of aircraft and open the flood gates.
posted by Harald74 at 11:13 PM on May 19, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 11:13 PM on May 19, 2023
Russian soldiers who surrender in Ukraine without grave injuries can be jailed, according to the country's supreme court. Even when completely surrounded.
A year and a half ago I would not have put "backsliding into Stalinism" on my bingo card...
posted by Harald74 at 11:15 PM on May 19, 2023
A year and a half ago I would not have put "backsliding into Stalinism" on my bingo card...
posted by Harald74 at 11:15 PM on May 19, 2023
A year and a half ago I would not have put "backsliding into Stalinism" on my bingo card...
Putin's been poisoning and jailing his opposition for about 15 years or so at least. He's been Stalin 2.0 for quite some time. The difference is that he made a deal with the world's Oligarchs rather than being a communist so he got much better press.
posted by srboisvert at 12:59 AM on May 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Putin's been poisoning and jailing his opposition for about 15 years or so at least. He's been Stalin 2.0 for quite some time. The difference is that he made a deal with the world's Oligarchs rather than being a communist so he got much better press.
posted by srboisvert at 12:59 AM on May 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
srboisvert: He's been Stalin 2.0 for quite some time.
And as usual a .0 version isn't without some serious bugs.
But in this case waiting for .1 won't be a wise thing; better exploit those bugs to the max, then rm -rf.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:20 AM on May 20, 2023
And as usual a .0 version isn't without some serious bugs.
But in this case waiting for .1 won't be a wise thing; better exploit those bugs to the max, then rm -rf.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:20 AM on May 20, 2023
Olesya Khromeychuk: In Ukraine, we are all carrying phantom pain
“Half of my phone book is empty now. The numbers belong to people who no longer live,” says a friend who himself is serving in the armed forces. “I don’t even save anyone’s numbers anymore. I don’t want another entry that won’t answer.”
Olesya Khromeychuk is a historian and writer. I highly recommend her short memoir The Death of a Soldier Told by His Sister.
posted by Kabanos at 7:28 AM on May 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
“Half of my phone book is empty now. The numbers belong to people who no longer live,” says a friend who himself is serving in the armed forces. “I don’t even save anyone’s numbers anymore. I don’t want another entry that won’t answer.”
Olesya Khromeychuk is a historian and writer. I highly recommend her short memoir The Death of a Soldier Told by His Sister.
posted by Kabanos at 7:28 AM on May 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Drones, phones and forums: how tech is shaping the war in Ukraine
what is emerging between Russia and the west, centred on Ukraine, is not so much a tech “gap” but a “schism”. If Russia is arguably falling behind western technology, it is unquestionably separating from it. The result is not mere atrophy. Instead, state-dominated social media spaces could help to entrench the Kremlin’s rule for decades to come. Alongside this, there’s a burgeoning network of tech partners, led by China, that—avowedly—seek to overturn the US-led international order. Russia cannot match America militarily, economically or in terms of its internal technological development, but with China on board it will have a better chance of at least keeping up, while carving out its own online spaces, which it has long wanted anyway.
posted by adamvasco at 7:38 AM on May 20, 2023
what is emerging between Russia and the west, centred on Ukraine, is not so much a tech “gap” but a “schism”. If Russia is arguably falling behind western technology, it is unquestionably separating from it. The result is not mere atrophy. Instead, state-dominated social media spaces could help to entrench the Kremlin’s rule for decades to come. Alongside this, there’s a burgeoning network of tech partners, led by China, that—avowedly—seek to overturn the US-led international order. Russia cannot match America militarily, economically or in terms of its internal technological development, but with China on board it will have a better chance of at least keeping up, while carving out its own online spaces, which it has long wanted anyway.
posted by adamvasco at 7:38 AM on May 20, 2023
Russia cannot match America militarily, economically or in terms of its internal technological development, but with China on board it will have a better chance of at least keeping up, while carving out its own online spaces, which it has long wanted anyway.
This is what Russia wants; it won't be what Russia gets. Of course, there is one example of a dictatorship keeping up with but isolating itself from the West, with China's backing: North Korea. So I guess there is hope afterall.
posted by UN at 8:56 AM on May 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is what Russia wants; it won't be what Russia gets. Of course, there is one example of a dictatorship keeping up with but isolating itself from the West, with China's backing: North Korea. So I guess there is hope afterall.
posted by UN at 8:56 AM on May 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Girkin is predictably not happy about the capture of Bakhmut, calling it a Pyrrhic victory and advising the RuAF to buckle up for the counter-offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 12:18 AM on May 22, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 12:18 AM on May 22, 2023
Japan is giving unprecedented support to Ukraine, pledging 100 military vehicles, as well as medical aid and emergency rations. Highly symbolic, and they've provided substantial financial support as well:
Japanese prime minister added that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation would insure $674 million worth of Samurai bonds for Poland to support Ukrainian refugees. Plus, Japan plans to provide assistance totaling $7.6 billion for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
posted by Harald74 at 12:22 AM on May 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
Japanese prime minister added that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation would insure $674 million worth of Samurai bonds for Poland to support Ukrainian refugees. Plus, Japan plans to provide assistance totaling $7.6 billion for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
posted by Harald74 at 12:22 AM on May 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
US former naval aviator who has been training F-16 pilots in simulators gives her thoughts on the situation:
Thus, I'm not opposed to moving F-16s to Ukraine. I think its a good thing overall. But, I think people need to be clear eyed in their assessment of the capabilities and limitations of the system. This is not a wunderwaffe.
posted by Harald74 at 12:47 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Thus, I'm not opposed to moving F-16s to Ukraine. I think its a good thing overall. But, I think people need to be clear eyed in their assessment of the capabilities and limitations of the system. This is not a wunderwaffe.
posted by Harald74 at 12:47 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
@Sputnik_not is loving this development:
BREAKING: Putin announces another Special Military Operation to defend Russian-speaking Russians from Russians invading Russia from Russia
posted by Kabanos at 6:57 AM on May 22, 2023 [8 favorites]
BREAKING: Putin announces another Special Military Operation to defend Russian-speaking Russians from Russians invading Russia from Russia
posted by Kabanos at 6:57 AM on May 22, 2023 [8 favorites]
Those predictions on the Russian Federation disintegrating because of this war? Looking more and more possible.
posted by UN at 7:09 AM on May 22, 2023
posted by UN at 7:09 AM on May 22, 2023
I think we have to recognize that it isn’t the F-16 that is the real game changer here it is the weapons we send with it and how much better it makes those weapons. For example SEAD missions — suppression of enemy air defense. The goal of these missions is to find enemy air defense systems and blow them
up with using an anti-radiation missiles. Today Ukraine has American HARM missiles that they’ve been able to jury rig to use against pre-identified targets, uploaded by a laptop before takeoff. With an F-16 the pilots can go out on a so called Wild Weasel run where they actively attempt to provoke enemy air defense and then hit them as soon as they turn on their radars. They don’t need to preprogram the the missile and they can even adjust targeting if needed. The result is a much higher success rate for each mission they fly.
All of this should mean that the balance in the air over Ukraine will start to decisively favor Ukraine. If Ukraine has F-16s with Sidewinder missiles flying a combat air patrol then it will make it much harder for Russians to use the SU-24s and attack helicopters to provide air support for their ground troops. F-16 with GPS guided glide bombs can get coordinates in real time from the forward observers and program the bomb and drop it.
On top of this it is no secret that the current airframes in use by Russia and Ukraine are flying way beyond their expected service lives. There are shortages of spare parts that are grounding aircraft on both sides. The metal fatigue from all those high g combat maneuvers is going to either take aircraft offline for an extended rebuild job on the airframe or the aircraft will break apart in midair.
posted by interogative mood at 7:24 AM on May 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
up with using an anti-radiation missiles. Today Ukraine has American HARM missiles that they’ve been able to jury rig to use against pre-identified targets, uploaded by a laptop before takeoff. With an F-16 the pilots can go out on a so called Wild Weasel run where they actively attempt to provoke enemy air defense and then hit them as soon as they turn on their radars. They don’t need to preprogram the the missile and they can even adjust targeting if needed. The result is a much higher success rate for each mission they fly.
All of this should mean that the balance in the air over Ukraine will start to decisively favor Ukraine. If Ukraine has F-16s with Sidewinder missiles flying a combat air patrol then it will make it much harder for Russians to use the SU-24s and attack helicopters to provide air support for their ground troops. F-16 with GPS guided glide bombs can get coordinates in real time from the forward observers and program the bomb and drop it.
On top of this it is no secret that the current airframes in use by Russia and Ukraine are flying way beyond their expected service lives. There are shortages of spare parts that are grounding aircraft on both sides. The metal fatigue from all those high g combat maneuvers is going to either take aircraft offline for an extended rebuild job on the airframe or the aircraft will break apart in midair.
posted by interogative mood at 7:24 AM on May 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
US former naval aviator who has been training F-16 pilots in simulators gives her thoughts on the situation:
That's an interesting thread, and a little disappointing in some of its details. If I understand her argument it seems like she thinks the biggest advantages of providing the F-16 are the ability to launch AGM-158 cruise missiles, similar to the Storm Shadow, better long term sustainability versus trying to keep Russian built MiGs flying, and advancing Ukrainian interoperability with NATO. But she thinks the F-16's will still be outmatched by the Russian MiG-31's because the particular group of F-16's which will be offered initially will be older models with what she terms an "antique" radar, plus these F-16's aren't optimized for SEAD either.
I wonder, though, if by providing Ukraine these F-16's and allowing them to become familiar with flying and maintaining them that it wouldn't pave the way to provide more capable newer models within a relatively short time frame.
In any case it seems like providing these will still expand Ukraine's capabilities in fighting this war. At least its another tool in the toolbox. I hope we keep giving them more and newer tools to win this war.
posted by Reverend John at 7:32 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
That's an interesting thread, and a little disappointing in some of its details. If I understand her argument it seems like she thinks the biggest advantages of providing the F-16 are the ability to launch AGM-158 cruise missiles, similar to the Storm Shadow, better long term sustainability versus trying to keep Russian built MiGs flying, and advancing Ukrainian interoperability with NATO. But she thinks the F-16's will still be outmatched by the Russian MiG-31's because the particular group of F-16's which will be offered initially will be older models with what she terms an "antique" radar, plus these F-16's aren't optimized for SEAD either.
I wonder, though, if by providing Ukraine these F-16's and allowing them to become familiar with flying and maintaining them that it wouldn't pave the way to provide more capable newer models within a relatively short time frame.
In any case it seems like providing these will still expand Ukraine's capabilities in fighting this war. At least its another tool in the toolbox. I hope we keep giving them more and newer tools to win this war.
posted by Reverend John at 7:32 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
I had no idea that the AIM-120 (the high-end air to air missile that's proposed to attach to the F16s) was $1M+ a shot. Are there any better options than putting the fanciest ground-based radar (Patriots) close to the front line?
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:28 AM on May 22, 2023
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:28 AM on May 22, 2023
The question that keeps popping into my head are, what else are the Ukrainians flying?
Because the capabilities of these F-16s can expand the capabilities of the Ukraine air force without the F-16 bringing anything new. If they've got multi-role fighters that are performing duties the F-16 can now take over but those other jets also have more capabilities, maybe they'll be freed up to do that now that the F-16s provide redundancy for that other role.
Maybe they've got aircraft that are only shooting down cruise missiles now that can be outfitted for SEAD missions and the F-16s will take over cruise missile duty. Or maybe those jets need escorts or something like that.
In the same way that it's better if they don't have to use Patriot systems to shoot down every single attacking missile so they can be reserved for the hyper-sonic missiles that ONLY it can intercept.
posted by VTX at 11:48 AM on May 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
Because the capabilities of these F-16s can expand the capabilities of the Ukraine air force without the F-16 bringing anything new. If they've got multi-role fighters that are performing duties the F-16 can now take over but those other jets also have more capabilities, maybe they'll be freed up to do that now that the F-16s provide redundancy for that other role.
Maybe they've got aircraft that are only shooting down cruise missiles now that can be outfitted for SEAD missions and the F-16s will take over cruise missile duty. Or maybe those jets need escorts or something like that.
In the same way that it's better if they don't have to use Patriot systems to shoot down every single attacking missile so they can be reserved for the hyper-sonic missiles that ONLY it can intercept.
posted by VTX at 11:48 AM on May 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
In theory the most up to date MIG-31’s flown by Russia should outmatch older F-16s but this war has shown again and again that Russian claims about their own stuff is full of lies and exaggerations. Russia’s claimed fleet of modernized MIG-31s should have obliterated the Ukrainian Air Force quickly; yet Ukraine has more MIG-29s flying today than at the start of the war. American military training assumes the Russian stuff works as advertised; because better safe than sorry.
posted by interogative mood at 11:56 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 11:56 AM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
In other news the Freedom Russia Legion has declared the Belgorod People’s Republic and claimed to capture a Russian military base where tactical nuclear weapons are stored. Reddit’s NonCredibleDefense going into meme overload so it is hard to get a clear picture of what is actually going on.
posted by interogative mood at 12:09 PM on May 22, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 12:09 PM on May 22, 2023
I hate to say it, but one reason the Russian air force hasn't swept the skies over Ukraine is because the Russian-built air defenses that Ukraine has are so good. I wouldn't want to fly an F-16 or a MiG-31 over a thicket of S-300's and S-400's. I'm glad we're providing the Ukrainians Patriots and NASAMS, and I hope there are more to be sent soon in the pipeline, because I think Russia was hoping they could wear down Ukraine's S-300 stocks with missiles, and then fly in relatively unopposed.
That "Meatgrinder" paper from RUSI that Kabanos linked upthread points out that Russia has been doing some things right and gradually getting their act together, including properly deploying and networking their air defenses.
Russia screwed up a lot of things going into this war, but we've also been wasting the opportunity that has provided by dawdling in providing Ukraine the weapons it needs to fight back. Meanwhile the Russians are getting the time they need to solidify their hold on the territories they have seized.
posted by Reverend John at 12:26 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
That "Meatgrinder" paper from RUSI that Kabanos linked upthread points out that Russia has been doing some things right and gradually getting their act together, including properly deploying and networking their air defenses.
Russia screwed up a lot of things going into this war, but we've also been wasting the opportunity that has provided by dawdling in providing Ukraine the weapons it needs to fight back. Meanwhile the Russians are getting the time they need to solidify their hold on the territories they have seized.
posted by Reverend John at 12:26 PM on May 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
I also noticed in one of the sub-threads from that of that F-16 discussion Tannehill alludes to having some knowledge that makes her certain we won't be supplying ATACMS, though she is intentionally vague, cryptically saying "the US has to maintain deterrence. All I can say. There's a legit reason."
posted by Reverend John at 12:46 PM on May 22, 2023
posted by Reverend John at 12:46 PM on May 22, 2023
Between the various daily factory/infrastructure explosions in Russia for months, recent aircraft shot over Russia (friendly fire?), the daily videos of outraged soldiers, and what's happening now ... my guess is that Russia is heading towards — or already in — a civil war/military coup.
posted by UN at 1:34 PM on May 22, 2023
posted by UN at 1:34 PM on May 22, 2023
I thought the Russian people, when ready, would mount large scale strlkes to defeat leadership. Wildly wrong there as workers would be less inclined so as to maintain needed goods for the Russian population. But I think strikes will be the final nail for Putin as the war worsens.
China is the key but it seems a blank key. China has few proxies that can supply Russia unlike Ukraine's allies, which have a stock pile.
from ISW 5-21.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military on May 21 for capturing Bakhmut"
So, we get that Wagner is allowed to scream at the MOD/ Putin set like a barking dog. He's allowed greater complaint rights to keep Russia under the illusion that outspoken independent killers fight the fight for the fight. Like tovarishch kinozvezda.
like theater.
posted by clavdivs at 3:08 PM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
China is the key but it seems a blank key. China has few proxies that can supply Russia unlike Ukraine's allies, which have a stock pile.
from ISW 5-21.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military on May 21 for capturing Bakhmut"
So, we get that Wagner is allowed to scream at the MOD/ Putin set like a barking dog. He's allowed greater complaint rights to keep Russia under the illusion that outspoken independent killers fight the fight for the fight. Like tovarishch kinozvezda.
like theater.
posted by clavdivs at 3:08 PM on May 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
I had no idea that the AIM-120 (the high-end air to air missile that's proposed to attach to the F16s) was $1M+ a shot. Are there any better options than putting the fanciest ground-based radar (Patriots) close to the front line?
$1M+ missiles sound cheap to me if they're downing $30M+ state of the art irreplaceable Russian fighters.
Also cheap compared to Patriots, which are $1B (that's billion with a B) for the whole system and $4M per missile.
War is expensive. I recall when people were rightfully indignant about $2B stealth bombers and $1M Tomahawk cruise missiles. Now we're like "Only $23B worth of equipment sent to Ukraine? Why are we so stingy?!"
posted by meowzilla at 3:48 PM on May 22, 2023
$1M+ missiles sound cheap to me if they're downing $30M+ state of the art irreplaceable Russian fighters.
Also cheap compared to Patriots, which are $1B (that's billion with a B) for the whole system and $4M per missile.
War is expensive. I recall when people were rightfully indignant about $2B stealth bombers and $1M Tomahawk cruise missiles. Now we're like "Only $23B worth of equipment sent to Ukraine? Why are we so stingy?!"
posted by meowzilla at 3:48 PM on May 22, 2023
Economists talk about durable goods as a way to separate the things we buy and use from the stuff we expect to last a few years. In theory those durable goods add value to our economy, creating things that deliver benefits for years like the house you live in.
War is wasteful in part because it turns everything and everyone into a disposable good. In peace a vehicle goes 100,000+ miles over 20 years. In war that vehicle is lucky to last a year. A gun barrel that could last generations as a hunting rifle will be worn out in a few months of active combat. The human who should provide their community with 40 years of productive labor will be broken or dead in under 4.
posted by interogative mood at 4:23 PM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
War is wasteful in part because it turns everything and everyone into a disposable good. In peace a vehicle goes 100,000+ miles over 20 years. In war that vehicle is lucky to last a year. A gun barrel that could last generations as a hunting rifle will be worn out in a few months of active combat. The human who should provide their community with 40 years of productive labor will be broken or dead in under 4.
posted by interogative mood at 4:23 PM on May 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
Prigozhin says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution [WaPo]
He's calling for full mobilization and conversion of the Russian economy toward the war. "“Russia needs to live like North Korea for a few years, so to say, close the borders … and work hard.”" And he's naming names of people who would be likely to be stormed with pitchforks. Or is that he's delivering his list of people who should be stormed with pitchforks. It's really hard to tell in today's Russia.
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on May 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
He's calling for full mobilization and conversion of the Russian economy toward the war. "“Russia needs to live like North Korea for a few years, so to say, close the borders … and work hard.”" And he's naming names of people who would be likely to be stormed with pitchforks. Or is that he's delivering his list of people who should be stormed with pitchforks. It's really hard to tell in today's Russia.
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on May 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
The human who should provide their community with 40 years of productive labor will be broken or dead in under 4.
and today, like clockwork, Prigozhin barks out with a plan to accomplish this very example.
posted by clavdivs at 5:22 PM on May 24, 2023
and today, like clockwork, Prigozhin barks out with a plan to accomplish this very example.
posted by clavdivs at 5:22 PM on May 24, 2023
According to the Guardian, Tass reported this morning that a fire had broken out at the Ministry of Defense, in Moscow. Then an hour later, they reported that "the Ministry of Emergency Situations did not detect a fire in the building of the Ministry of Defense". CNN has video of smoke surrounding the building, with a woman heard saying "The smell of burning is horrible".
frankdbrebinnothingtoseehere.gif
posted by Flunkie at 12:39 AM on May 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
frankdbrebinnothingtoseehere.gif
posted by Flunkie at 12:39 AM on May 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
As a comment on the limitations of OSINT, a "new type of Ukrainian drone" was reported in the Moscow region, but turned out to probably be a Cessna Skymaster.
posted by Harald74 at 12:43 AM on May 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:43 AM on May 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
It will be interesting to see the longer-term fallout of the Russian separatist's incursions into Russia proper, if any. All the different Russian factions seem to use this against each other already, Prigozhin screaming the loudest, as noted earlier in the thread. I personally think the best-case scenario would be that it either ties up a number of competent formations that would otherwise take part in the fighting over east, or maybe a whole lot of mobiks that will get in each other's way and make everyone miserable. Some hopeful individuals are all over Twitter going "surely THIS" about it triggering political turmoil inside Russia, however.
There's also a video of Russian three-star general Lapin running along a road with soldiers, yelling orders, later posing in front of an MRAP. It seems very counter-productive, borderline hilarious, but he probably has his sound political reasons for begin seen "getting things done". Note the Soviet flag patch on the general's uniform...
Which reminds me a bit of the heavy water sabotage in Norway during WWII: The saboteurs, Norwegians serving in the British Commandos, blew up the heavy water facilities and escaped on skis. The German sent 3,000 men after them, scouring the area. The results were that they put their own tracks down cross-crossing all over the saboteurs' tracks, making it very difficult to discern which were German and which were Norwegian, easing the latter's escape. I seem to remember hearing that the commanding German officer later remarked that they should have sent out 90 alpine troops in stead of 3,000 regular infantry. But it the right thing to do, politically, to send out everyone available.
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on May 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's also a video of Russian three-star general Lapin running along a road with soldiers, yelling orders, later posing in front of an MRAP. It seems very counter-productive, borderline hilarious, but he probably has his sound political reasons for begin seen "getting things done". Note the Soviet flag patch on the general's uniform...
Which reminds me a bit of the heavy water sabotage in Norway during WWII: The saboteurs, Norwegians serving in the British Commandos, blew up the heavy water facilities and escaped on skis. The German sent 3,000 men after them, scouring the area. The results were that they put their own tracks down cross-crossing all over the saboteurs' tracks, making it very difficult to discern which were German and which were Norwegian, easing the latter's escape. I seem to remember hearing that the commanding German officer later remarked that they should have sent out 90 alpine troops in stead of 3,000 regular infantry. But it the right thing to do, politically, to send out everyone available.
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on May 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Why Masha Gessen Resigned from the PEN America Board is an interview by Isaac Chotiner in the New Yorker about the recent situation when two Russian writers were disinvited by PEN America from its World Voices festival. Here’s an excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 10:42 PM on May 25, 2023 [9 favorites]
Earlier, you said that there were legitimate questions about whether Russians and Ukrainians should be invited to the same event. Is that an interesting question? I don’t really understand the idea that people of Russian descent or people holding Russian passports should ever not be invited to an event simply because of something their country is doing. That actually doesn’t seem all that complicated to me. What am I missing?The whole interview is very interesting and worth reading.
I think you’re missing a little bit of context. This is an imperial war in a not-quite-post-colonial situation. Ukrainians are constantly confronted with Russian dominance in cultural spheres and in academia. People who purport to know something about Ukraine in academia are—in their plurality, and there are certainly exceptions, but, in their plurality—people who spend most of their lives studying Russia or the Soviet Union. Ukrainians, I think quite rightly, look at all sorts of cultural venues, events, and universities as scarce commodities and say, “O.K., Russians have taken up so much cultural room, so much vocal space, that we have to campaign. Just set it aside for a while and listen to the other voices in this vast space, because the Empire has silenced those voices systematically.”
Maybe the distinction goes back to something you said earlier: that it’s one thing to decide how you invite people, and it’s another thing to invite people and then disinvite them after others make their displeasure known. And, in this case, there is a distinction between doing a panel on the invasion and only inviting Russians, or talking about Ukrainian history and only inviting Russians, and disinviting a specific person because of the passport they happen to hold.
Exactly. That’s a distinction.
One of the Ukrainians writers, Artem Chapeye, whose fiction we have published, told Gal Beckerman of The Atlantic, “The Russian participants decided to cancel their event themselves because we as active soldiers were not able to participate under the same umbrella.” The piece continues, “Chapeye said he couldn’t make distinctions between ‘good’ Russians and ‘bad’ Russians in this case. ‘Until the war ends,’ he wrote to me, ‘a soldier can not be seen with the “good Russians.” ’ ” What did you make of this argument?
What Artem actually said was that he does differentiate between good and bad Russians, but, as long as he’s on active duty, he can’t be seen even with the “good Russians.” [Beckerman had asked Chapeye whether he makes a distinction between Russians who actively or passively support the war and those who are anti-Putin, and Chapeye responded, “Of course. Nevertheless, until the war ends a soldier cannot be seen with the ‘good Russians,’ you can’t dig into everyone’s biography.”]
But let me unpack the trope. The phrase “good Russians” does not refer to people like me or the people who were going to be on this panel. “Good Russians” are people who actively participated in creating the regime and upholding the regime who then decided they were against the war. They are people who most loudly declare that they have no responsibility for this war, but often are heavily implicated in creating the conditions that strengthen the regime that made this war possible. So when people say “good Russians” they’re not necessarily talking about dissidents. They’re talking about people who they feel take up all the attention on the international stage. Because of their prior positions of power, they have a lot of connections, they have a lot of media exposure, and their voices talking about how much they oppose the war are once again louder than Ukrainian voices. So that’s what the phrase “good Russians” refers to.
As one Ukrainian put it to me, “The actually good Russians are the ones who are not trying to talk to me.” She says these Russians are “alright Russians,” who don’t stick their noses in our Ukrainian affairs and just deal with Russia. Now, that’s exactly what our panel was going to be. As far as what Artem said about whether he can be seen with any Russians, including on a screenshot of a festival program, I’m not aware of any legal requirements or possible repercussions. But I can’t speak to whether his commanding officer or some newspaper would run away with that as damaging to his reputation. He can speak to that, but there’s no legal reason why he should be in trouble.
Is part of the notion of “good Russians” that even Russians criticizing the war in some way is inappropriate? Or is it the way they’re going about it?
In general, a lot of Ukrainians feel that Russians are habitually drawing too much attention to themselves. This war is an act of Russian aggression that’s happening on Ukrainian territory. To Ukrainians, certainly, it’s not about the Russian regime. As someone who spent their entire working life writing about the Russian regime and Russian history, of course it’s about the Russian regime and Russian history. But, again, I can see why, in a situation that’s often experienced genuinely as a situation of scarcity, an article about Russia, Russians, “good Russians,” Russian exiles who are suffering so much because they oppose the war—I’ve written those articles—and I can see how that feels, how it drowns out the Ukrainian experience. The more painful aspect is that war is incredibly boring and repetitive, right? One Ukrainian spending twenty-three days in a cellar, unable to get drinking water because of Russian shelling, is going to be very much like another Ukrainian going through the same experience. Then you see how, gradually—even though this war has had an inordinate amount of media coverage—attention for that type of thing drops. “Good Russians” who are writing books, creating media, staging shows, writing songs about how much they oppose the war—they’re different from one another. I’m intentionally being somewhat reductive here, but just pointing out that there’s a variety of painful experiences and a variety of ways for Ukrainians to genuinely experience being overshadowed and drowned out by Russians even while this war is going on.
posted by Kattullus at 10:42 PM on May 25, 2023 [9 favorites]
ISW has published a useful retrospective of the Battle for Bakhmut.
posted by Quasirandom at 6:08 AM on May 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Quasirandom at 6:08 AM on May 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
Corrupt Russian officers are said to be allowing mobilised soldiers to stay at home in Russia, in exchange for half of the soldiers' salaries.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:25 PM on May 26, 2023
posted by Meatbomb at 2:25 PM on May 26, 2023
The Diary of a Ukrainian Filmmaker-Turned-Soldier
In one Bakhmut basement, I met an 80-year-old woman, who had worked in the fields her whole life. Her family had been killed in the war and she had been stuck in that basement for months. “Dear, what do you think,” she asked, “is there a god?” I told her I’d like to hear her thoughts on it. “I’ve gone to church every week my whole life,” she said. “But now I don’t believe in god. Because of what they have done to my people, to my land. There cannot be any god.” There was also a priest in the basement, and she nodded toward him. “Look at this priest,” she said. “Why is he still praying? Doesn’t he see that he’s a clown?”posted by Kabanos at 3:46 PM on May 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
The thing that struck me as summing up the problem with Russians in spaces with Russian-colonized or Russian-invaded people was the fact the panel Gessen wanted was on the theme of "writing in exile from tyranny"... with three writers from Russia and one from China. Because even most of the "good Russians' have marinated in an imperial mindset for so long that the countries ground under Russia's heel aren't entirely real to them, nor are the many other people struggling with tyrannical regimes across the world, just the great powers. And any oppression they face is more important and worse than anyone else's.
And of course, before any Russians were invited, the Ukrainian writers had been assured they would not be, and then it was sprung on them as a last minute change, presumably thinking they would cave rather than look rude and discriminatory. But as we have seen, Ukrainians are not a people who cave easily.
posted by tavella at 7:45 PM on May 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
And of course, before any Russians were invited, the Ukrainian writers had been assured they would not be, and then it was sprung on them as a last minute change, presumably thinking they would cave rather than look rude and discriminatory. But as we have seen, Ukrainians are not a people who cave easily.
posted by tavella at 7:45 PM on May 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
Seeing reports that the cross-border raid by Russians against Russians was led by a Neo-Nazi? That's not helpful, whether true or untrue.
posted by hippybear at 8:22 PM on May 26, 2023
posted by hippybear at 8:22 PM on May 26, 2023
(Looks like this thread's going to close in the next few days. I've appreciated seeing all of your updates and hope one of you starts another Ukraine thread after this one.)
posted by nobody at 1:45 PM on May 27, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by nobody at 1:45 PM on May 27, 2023 [8 favorites]
Russia hasn't started yet to act seriously in Ukraine, Russian ambassador to the UK says.
Bit of a shitty tactic, letting the country you attacked inflict serious losses on your forces, to the extent that you have to pull 60-year old tanks and APCs out of storage to have something operable still available.
"We haven't started in earnest." Yeah right, you're fumbling with the ignition keys so you can start the car to run over the guy who in the meantime is ripping out the engine and the transmission.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:21 AM on May 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Bit of a shitty tactic, letting the country you attacked inflict serious losses on your forces, to the extent that you have to pull 60-year old tanks and APCs out of storage to have something operable still available.
"We haven't started in earnest." Yeah right, you're fumbling with the ignition keys so you can start the car to run over the guy who in the meantime is ripping out the engine and the transmission.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:21 AM on May 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
« Older Checked Out | Getting Involved With Your Local Library Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by Horace Rumpole at 11:01 AM on April 28, 2023 [25 favorites]